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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

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@ToffCap 1 click

ToffCap on X

Whenever there's a very strong move on earnings, I always check it out and almost always add / buy. From experience I know that the market generally doesn't price strong news properly. At best, most often the share price will only reflect the earnings dynamics, but not any multiple rerating. And in case of VERY strong earnings (such as $EVC) the market will not even price those properly, leaving plenty to go for the price on both earnings and multiple rerating. People in it for a trade will sell down on the massive move. Those that made a bundle might also, as the position becomes too large. And others who missed it are biased in buying something that already ran so much. This often leads to a few days of 'pressure', and a good moment to add. And then the market does its work.

Investor Letters

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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

CCOI $377M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $458M
The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $917M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

MNRO $430M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $666M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M
Capital Employed 9 clicks
LWAY · long

Lifeway Foods INC

Lifeway Foods holds 95% market share in kefir, is growing 20% to 35%, and trades at 12 times projected 2027 earnings as its capex cycle…

LWAY $328M
Value Investors Club

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $959M
The Oak Bloke 7 clicks

[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us

OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…

OTCM $650M
scuttleblurb 3 clicks

Clear the DEC?

Diversified Energy (DEC) has paid $21.84 per share in dividends since June 2017 and trades at $13.35 amid a bullish U.S.

DEC $959M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $327M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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