Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
From X
PAA Research on X
Who remembers the $CAR squeeze from April? It feels like 3-decades ago. In any case, the stock is trading at $121 AH. If you ever wonder about the market's ability to inflict the most pain, take a gander at that chart over the past year.
PAA Research on X
Tractor Supply lowered guidance but rose modestly in a tough market after a severe share-price decline, reviving debate over whether the former growth compounder is washed out.
PAA Research on X
Google's 13% paid-click growth in Q2 2026 masked CPC growth slowing to 3%, raising concerns that a sharper click deceleration could pressure advertising economics.
PAA Research on X
I don't want to extrapolate from a single earnings report, but if you own a software stock than didn't trade materially higher as the $IGV bounced 25-30% from mid-April to early June, you might be in trouble. I guess there were signs with $PEGA...
PAA Research on X
Chubb says commercial-property new and renewal pricing fell 12% year over year, while nonrenewed or rejected business fell 40%, amid broader casualty and E&S softening.
PAA Research on X
WD-40’s post-earnings gap closed after a beat management failed to explain clearly, raising questions about the quarter’s upside.
PAA Research on X
Campbell Soup's leverage and weak capital allocation make a sale difficult, though a dividend cut could free $450 million of annual cash flow for deleveraging.
PAA Research on X
Various parts of the AI CAPEX trade ($MU, $SNDK, $COHR, $MRVL are down (-30%)-(-40%) in the past month, in what inning are we in for this sell-off?
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund 2025 GOOGL $4.2T
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026
- Palm Harbour Capital fourth quarter LNA $428M
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023 TKMAF $7.7B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Maran Capital Management second quarter SPCX
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 BABA $289B
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 PGEN $2.6B
BHVN 2026-08-27 Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Edmund Ingham KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
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