Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
From X
Broken Moats on X
U-Haul faces rising insurance and liability costs as trucking brokers face greater exposure, though consumer pricing power may cushion margins.
Broken Moats on X
The July-to-current rotation reflects short covering and an unwind of long semiconductor trades, with recent AI laggard rallies vulnerable as SaaS earnings approach.
Broken Moats on X
Zillow faces commission-model disruption, rental competition and MLS exclusivity litigation that could weaken its home-search audience and advertising revenue.
Broken Moats on X
SUJA's collapsed IPO masks years of negative free cash flow, high debt and a capital-intensive prebiotic soda push, while sponsor ownership creates lockup risk.
Broken Moats on X
Walmart plans major late-Q2 price investments, pressuring Target’s traffic, margins and valuation as consumers tighten spending.
Broken Moats on X
$mrna secondary coming in 21.05 minutes
Broken Moats on X
Software stocks face a post-options-expiration squeeze unwind as earnings expose AI-driven competition, cloud costs and weaknesses in seat-based models. Workday rumor news marked the peak counter-narrative.
Broken Moats on X
Healthcare stocks with no Moderna exposure rallied more than 10%, creating an opening for secondary offerings to strengthen fragile balance sheets.
Investor Letters
All letters
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
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