Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
28h ago STNE $2.3B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research 29h ago SBLK $3.4B Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii From X
Broken Moats on X
Dutch Bros has risen nearly 40% despite premium valuation as 7 Brew, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Dunkin and Swig intensify pricing pressure in refreshers and energy drinks.
Broken Moats on X
$BIRK misses earnings, stock drops and now with one $250m repurchase the stock has squeezed up 70% in less than a month....
Broken Moats on X
CAVA rose 30% in a week without news as Target and private-credit-exposed Ares also made sharp late-week moves.
Broken Moats on X
Magnite faces questions over its CFO departure, insider selling and AI risks outside connected TV as its ad-tech position consolidates.
Broken Moats on X
QXO’s pro forma capitalization is estimated at 1.1 billion shares and $8 billion of net debt after Kodiak, Beacon and TopBuild financing.
Broken Moats on X
Eli Lilly’s NLRP3 trials put it alongside Novo Nordisk, while AstraZeneca and smaller developers add to obesity-drug competition.
Broken Moats on X
AltCap and Nvidia shareholders face criticism over promoting holdings to retail investors before potential share sales, drawing comparisons with Andrew Left.
Broken Moats on X
Shake Shack's $4 million AUV and 20% restaurant margins support new stores despite weaker travel and low-end consumers; at roughly 1x sales, the risk-reward is skewed upward.
Investor Letters
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TTMI 2026-08-25 TTM Technologies: Priced Like A Board Shop, Booked Like A Defense Prime
Jaden Mealy 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
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AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
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$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
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Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Bristlemoon Capital ZTS 2026-08-13[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY
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The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)
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