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Tuesday, August 25, 2026

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Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing fleet-customer concentration risk.

VRRM $458M
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I posted this mental model of $EVC in May when the stock was in high $7s. My price target for the company is $10 billion equity value or around $100 per share. Apparently some funds bought into Entravision based on this and didn’t do much of their own homework. I didn’t think I needed to say this but do your own homework if you buy a stock. I’m just some dude in rural America. I never went to college. Worked third shift in a factory all my adult life. Now I talk about stocks I like, invest my money and tweet jokes. That being said, nothing has changed with my thesis on Entravision being a potential multi-bagger. Q2 was an amazing quarter. Q3 will be an amazing quarter. You don’t measure a businesses success over a quarter, which it seems like many are doing. The best investing is done over long periods of time. Patience is the best tool for the best success. Tell me, has anything changed with the thesis? The industry is growing at a 30-50% annual rate. As long as Entravision can keep improving their models they will likely continue to grow at the industry rate. And over the past few years they have smoked the industry. One quarter of deceleration? Who cares. They probably had a model breakthrough in Q2 that accelerated revenues and I’m sure the World Cup also helped their CTV business. And to be frank, this management team is one of the most conservative teams I know. They literally start every call talking about the dying media business. Do the math on what Q4 implies if you think it’s over. Just do it. The DSP business model is one of the best I’ve ever seen. Low capital costs. Extremely high incremental margins. Scalable. Negative working capital. Back out of the media business and the spectrum assets - which are looking like they could get bid over near-term (near term is way different for me than Wall Street’s two second of pleasure btw) and you are buying Ad-Tech for an extremely low multiple, or close to nothing. I could be wrong. I don’t think there’s crazy downside here. But just remember, I’m not from the industry. I made bathtubs for a living until I started blogging. So definitely do you own research before buying blindly based on my thoughts. It is hilarious though that hedge funds were buying because of my research. Can’t wait to tell some of the guys at the shop I worked at about that. Over some Steel Reserve and Lucky Strike smokes, of course.
@eriksen_tim 1 click

Tim Eriksen on X

Is $EVC is a classic case of thesis drift for its investors? It was all about sequential hypergrowth (with a supposed SOTP margin of safety). Mgmt said Q3 will be below Q2. Now the thesis is about strong year over year growth. What happens in a few quarters when year over year growth is gone, or is low single digits? Is this really a seasonal business? For me it was a small position due to the nature of the situation. Q2 growth was lighter than I expected so I was selling after hours and have fully exited.

Investor Letters

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Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

MNRO $430M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $666M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $959M
The Oak Bloke 7 clicks

[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us

OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…

OTCM $650M
scuttleblurb 3 clicks

Clear the DEC?

Diversified Energy (DEC) has paid $21.84 per share in dividends since June 2017 and trades at $13.35 amid a bullish U.S.

DEC $959M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $327M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks
OFRM · long

Once Upon A Farm Pbc

Once Upon a Farm (OFRM) makes organic baby food, smoothies and kid snacks using high-pressure processing instead of heat pasteurization.

OFRM $690M
Value Investors Club

ROAS to Riches

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech segment grew Q1 2026 revenue 204% and generated over $34 million of EBIT, becoming 78% of sales and the core…

EVC $666M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Forgive me Father, I have Sabled.

Sable Offshore restarted Santa Ynez oil flows under a Defense Production Act order, targeting 50,000 barrels daily and a path to 60,000…

SOC $744M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 3 clicks

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

EVC $666M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

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