Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow breakeven in Q4 2026.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
From X
catechwilliams on X
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Bloomberg: USDA halting avocado shipments from Michoacan, Mexico following threats to inspection officers. $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocado from Michoacan. Potentially related to FCPA investigation given agencies involved. https://t.co/j15wm3bbIa
catechwilliams on X
Calavo Growers' promised sale of RFG missed another deadline after CEO Lee Cole said it would close within a month, then by May.
catechwilliams on X
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
catechwilliams on X
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
catechwilliams on X
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
catechwilliams on X
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
Investor Letters
All letters- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 +23.8%
- First Eagle Investments 2Q 2026 -16.6%
- Broyhill Asset Management first quarter -6.0%
- Greenhaven Road Capital first quarter +17.0%
- Greenhaven Road Capital first quarter
- Weitz Investment Management 3Q25
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 +2.5%
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 +3.9%
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