$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Saturday, August 15, 2026
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From X
Ian Bezek on X
@boujee_banker @Nobilis_Capital @HettyGreen2020 $FMX reports Bara data, it's growing double digits as well, albeit slower than $TBBB. https://t.co/hlJy1GhSnZ
Ian Bezek on X
@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero
Ian Bezek on X
@lasse108 @ReturnsJourney $intr
Nat Stewart on X
Fantastic $NRP update from John. Particularly appreciate his capital allocation framework and view on why paying out 100% of cash flow makes the most sense. https://t.co/6LngKKV9hC
JabroniCoin.USD on X
$CENX is a non-AI bottleneck https://t.co/L0PvNNH4HK
mavix on X
Leatt $LEAT Q2 '26 results: ▫️Revenues +1% *Consumer Direct +68% *Dealer Direct -2% *Distributor -6% ▫️EBIT -17.7% ▫️Net income -20% ▫️Cash of $19.5 million (+48%) ▫️Temporary supply chain timing challenges (now resolved) ▫️Consumer demand remains strong https://t.co/z8aStbpiKa
BDC on X
Bingo. Executive order just signed to go into effect soon...domestic suppliers WIN. $MOB being FCC exempt, Blue UAS, and supplier to domestic OEMs like $TDY means they also win. And great quarter too...business is starting to inflect. https://t.co/Wj5fOsJxvh
Tim Eriksen on X
@ShmuelLon Good. That was my intention. It was less about the merits of $EVC in the future and more about recognizing that 1) we have to think about growth properly; and 2)we have to guard against thesis drift.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $143M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- White Falcon Capital Management Q2 2026 EPAM $5.8BTOI $5.4B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 SHC $5.2BCALY $2.6B
- Cedar Creek Partners Q2 ‘26 ENDI $132MEXCE $1.3B
- LVS Advisory first half of 2026 VISN $1.5B
- Polaris Capital Management SECOND QUARTER 2026 CYTK $9.4BLNTH $6.5B
- Palm Harbour Capital second quarter ALHG $2B082920 $946M
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
AAON · long Aaon INC (aaon)
AAON is presented as a long investment idea, revisiting a company written up as a short nearly a decade ago.
Unpacking eDreams' Capital Markets Day
EDreams nears 7.25 million Prime members and €180 million of Cash EBITDA, marking its shift from an online travel agency to a…
China Yuchai: Deep Value Meets Growth (NYSE:CYD)
China Yuchai (CYD) trades at 2x EBITDA and 0.3x book as data-center backup-power demand, buybacks, and net cash support an earnings…
A 4x in 4 Years Surfing the Data Center Tsunami? ($TGEN)
Tecogen ($TGEN) sells gas-or-electric chillers that management says cut data-center cooling costs 30–40%, with factory utilization offering…
The Strategic Value of eDreams
EDreams’ Prime travel subscription model makes the €3.6 billion European OTA a potential Uber, Airbnb or Amazon acquisition target.
Intriguing Patent Litigation Situation ($FNCH)
Finch Therapeutics faces a jury verdict on FMT patent claims against Ferring’s Rebyota; a win could bring damages and royalties, while a…
Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)
Red Cat’s Teal Drones is one of two remaining candidates for a $600 million to $1 billion-plus U.S.
Nvidia, Nano-X and the interpretation of 13F filings
Nvidia’s $380,000 Nano-X stake came from Zebra Medical Vision’s acquisition and is managed by another reporting person, undermining the 50%…
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
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Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
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Deep Sail Capital
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
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Ian Bezek
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JabroniCoin.USD
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KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
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marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
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Negligible Capital
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SG
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Timyan Bank Alert
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ToffCap
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
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