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Natural gas itself has not been the scarce input. The turbines have. Once AI data-centre load outran what the grid, renewables, and near-term nuclear could cover on a GW scale, gas became the compromise — and turbine demand surged from 2024–2025. Lead times still run roughly three to five years, with manufacturers already sold out into 2029–2031. That puts the first large batch of those ordered turbines on a delivery horizon closer to the next twelve months. As they arrive, and as behind-the-meter projects sit at or near gas fields, the incremental gas draw is likely to show up in a concentrated window, not a smooth ramp. Storage has grown only modestly while demand has risen, and drilling and pipeline buildout have stayed slow. New customers do not want to wait another three to four years for later turbine slots, so they are also exploring workarounds: reciprocating engines — internal combustion units closer to older, smaller airplane engines than to jets. The tech is not high-end blade metallurgy, so these generators can be mass-produced. They still prefer natural gas (more energy at the same density, and cleaner). Slightly less efficient than a turbine, but available sooner — and still burning gas. Either path concentrates the fuel draw. $AR, $EXE and $CRK are the producers sitting on that timing gap.

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