Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 2 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $46B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 8 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach Sep 30

Lee Roach on X

I am fascinated by $FICO. So many people have been blown out by it. Many on X have given up and said it’s going much lower. I haven’t done enough work to even tell you if it’s a buy or not. I just love following these beaten down names. Many once compounders are getting killed now. Building a watch list of compounder names that are getting killed to see what ones are best to own.

@valuedontlie Sep 30

Colin King on X

$CALM down ~8% pre-market on 1Q27 results Likely another few quarters til cycle turn (?), balance sheet still rock solid, minimal buybacks, dividend is variable so no payout when losing money $55/sh BV (~$50 TBV) vs. $63 pre-market = 1.15x P/B https://t.co/Xx0kmu7j66

@DOMOCAPITAL Sep 30

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

$PBI https://t.co/MFR4Wes8aM

@convequity Sep 30

Convequity on X

Judging Tower Semiconductor ($TSEM) by how advanced its chip process is misses what its chips are for. Skeptics often set Tower's older 65 nm process against the more advanced processes at TSMC ($TSM). That yardstick suits logic chips, which are judged on transistor density. It does not suit the analog chips Tower makes for optics. 1. In an optical engine, the analog front-end is the circuitry that drives the laser and reads the returning light. It needs speed, linearity and power efficiency, not maximum transistor density. 2. Tower's strength is its silicon-germanium BiCMOS processes. They have long dominated the merchant market for these laser-driver and receiver chips because they deliver high performance without the most advanced CMOS logic. 3. A less noticed strength is hybrid bonding. Co-packaged optics needs an electronic chip bonded reliably onto a photonic one. Tower already runs mature, high-yield hybrid bonding for stacked image sensors in high-end phones, where a signal-processing chip is bonded onto a light-sensing chip. A close technical parallel, already at volume. The limit: if the electronic chip has to take on more complex signal processing, such as clock recovery or adaptive equalization, TSMC's advanced FinFET processes do offer real advantages in power and integration. Different foundries may end up making different parts of the system. So Tower's position in optics rests on silicon-germanium and photonic process expertise, not on advanced logic.

@irbezek Sep 30

Ian Bezek on X

Since multiple people have pinged me this. Cancun is not Tulum. They are 100km apart. The prior socialist government built the Tulum airport in part to screw with us $ASR Cancun concession holders. We want Tulum to fail. Cancun hotel occupancy remains in the mid-50s. https://t.co/4hb7GRGGZO

@kab604 Sep 30

kab60 on X

Getting hard to justify $CSU.TO > $FIS ... Sure, culture and all that, but FIS sells the stickiest shit & has LT contracts, is (much) cheaper, has more torque (cheap leverage!) & ~organic growth ~the same

@pennycheck Sep 29

⚽️📡 on X

Doing this on the eve of the first massive share unlock on $CBRS is quite the move... https://t.co/4S5yCotZ7M

@leevalueroach Sep 29 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Can someone find me a single CEO own has bought as much stock in the open market as Ryan Cohen has done for $GME? I know it’s a hated stock on Wall Street but come on guys. This is massively bullish. https://t.co/URKXXIxstM

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $63B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74BINTR $3.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8%…

ARLP $3.2B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 5 4 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $18BMRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $3B

Value Investors Club Jul 6 2 clicks

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $40BIRDM $5B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

Research & Analysis | AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): MRO Holdings Reshapes the Margin Profile

AAR’s $1.8 billion acquisition of a 65% stake in MRO Holdings adds widebody aircraft maintenance and targets a 19% to 20% EBITDA margin by…

AIR $4B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

American Healthcare REIT: A Dip Buy Driven By Senior-Care And Outpatient Tailwind

American Healthcare REIT’s senior-housing and outpatient portfolio is driving FFO growth and dividend safety, while a rich valuation limits…

AHR $12B

Albert Anthony Oct 2 1 click

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

The Trade Desk's Q2 revenue grew 3% to $715 million as Q3 guidance called for a year-over-year decline; TTD has fallen over 90% from its…

TTD $5.8B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2 1 click

Belden Inc.: The Ruckus Debt Looks Scarier Than The Math

Belden targets net leverage of 2.9x by 2027 from 3.9x, using RUCKUS's 65%+ gross margins and free cash flow to reduce debt.

BDC $4.3B

Lee Bailey Oct 2

Crocs: Double-Digit Buyback Yield (Ticker: CROX)

Crocs has $2 billion of buyback authorization, more than a third of its market cap, as North American sales stabilize and HeyDude drags on…

CROX $5.5B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 2 4 clicks

Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Distribute Below $260

Twilio posted Q2 revenue of $1.50 billion, up 22%, and guided 16% Q3 growth; the note rates TWLO Hold at $305, with a $260 risk line.

TWLO $42B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 1 1 click

Constellium: The Spread Between Feedstock And End Prices Keeps Widening

Constellium’s widening feedstock-to-end-price spread supports 2026 EBITDA guidance of $980M-$1.02B and free cash flow above $300M.

CSTM $3.5B

Andres Veurink Oct 1

Lee Roach on X

Colin King on X

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Convequity on X

Ian Bezek on X

kab60 on X

⚽️📡 on X

Lee Roach on X

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