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Thursday, October 1, 2026

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@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

On timber companies $RYN and $WY. If the long end keeps going up. 6-7% which I think is definitely possible. Then timber companies will get crushed. But my overall thesis remains and is happening in real time: energy-driven inflation, fiscal deterioration, failed treasury buybacks, the Fed losing the long end. Right now the market is repricing duration before it reprices scarcity. This gap can run for decades. Equities were destroyed in real terms through 1973 and 1974. But hard assets won the decade. I’m praying both of these timber companies keep going down. Land is my favorite asset to own. You can see it. You can touch it. You can hunt on it. You can fish on it. And you can grow productive timber on it. Huge swaths of land have massive optionality. Let’s hope Scott “I am the house” Bessent continues to lose the bond market. I want to see a bloodbath here.
@SowingAlphaSeed 1 click

Farmer on X

You look at $LQDA? Just received this letter. "Liquidia was on track to generate $1.4 billion in revenue in 2027. Half of the revenue so far has been from PAH and half from PH-ILD. Net margins are likely to be in the 50% range. If PH-ILD is removed, we assume $700 million in revenue and $350 million in cash flow. At a reasonable multiple, we would be looking at a stock value from that sales market between $44 and $55. If there is a 30% royalty on PH-ILD sales, we would have $350 million in cash flow from PAH and $245 million in cash flow from PH-ILD sales. At a reasonable multiple, we would be looking at a stock value from that sales market between $75 and $94." https://t.co/CatQzuyQ1C

Investor Letters

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Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $682M
The Mikro Kap 2 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout…

AAON $6.8BKNF $2.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research
ANAB · long

Anaptysbio INC

AnaptysBio is pitched for a 50% to 80% return over four to six weeks after its April 2026 taxable spin-off of R&D-heavy operations.

ANAB $1.5B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Peloton: Subscriber Squeeze

Peloton’s improved balance sheet has not stopped weak subscription trends or sharp volatility, prompting purchases near $3.70, a later…

PTON $2.2B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $843M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

The Last Bidder

Aquarian won Brighthouse Financial despite a lower bid after higher offers failed to secure reinsurance for its legacy liabilities and thin…

BHF $2.9B
Mispriced Assets

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