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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back within the next year, then a combination of the current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap 1 click

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back with the next year, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields have peaked, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.

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Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

FGPR $254MPRTH $642M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 12 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
AIRS · long

Airsculpt Technolo INC

AirSculpt (AIRS) operates roughly 30 centers offering premium self-pay body contouring, fat removal, fat transfer and skin-tightening…

AIRS $129M
Value Investors Club

HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake

HBM’s economic, thermal and power costs will drive a 90% volume drop from peak within 7-10 years, while DRAM stocks remain cyclical.

MU $1.2T
Irrational Analysis

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $20B
Hated Moats 4 clicks

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