Saturday, September 26, 2026

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million refinancing, and Bob Chapek’s account of Disney succession.

PTON $2.2B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 25 5 clicks

Sep 25 OUST $2.9B

Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Cestrian Capital Research 7 clicks

Sep 25 AAON $6.8B

Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)

Monte Independent Investment Research 8 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap Nov 12

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg the "studies" that the opposition have submitted are full of false assumptions and bad data, as demonstrated by $NN. Why would objectors willingly submit bad studies? logical explanation is b/c proper studies show no interference.

@LaughingH20Cap Nov 12

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 8/x) add this to the list of common sense and technical arguments that demonstrate how the 900 band is not messy. Assume the $NN bears will ignore this, as they ignored the above points. https://t.co/wqpbmn33X7

@LittleOwlRes Nov 10

Little Owl Research on X

In September I had the pleasure of attending the Howard Hughes $HHH annual shareholder meeting. I met the man himself! @BillAckman Not to get ahead of myself, but this could be the beginning of something very special. Today’s quarterly results help to reinforce my views on the quality of both the asset base and management. The company is firing on all cylinders. Management continues to execute on the MPC strategy, and an acquisition seems highly likely in the short term. However, the shares still trade at a deep discount to intrinsic value. Do I care? No—at least not yet. Pershing Square has a truly remarkable track record. Since adopting their “permanent capital” strategy they have done 23.5% net of fees annually since January of 2018. Not too shabby. I suspect they’ll be acquiring a small insurer in the 1.0x-1.4x P/B range, if that’s the case, and they continue to put up those returns, the acquisition will be monstrously accretive. When Buffett took control of Berkshire, it was a failing textile mill with a negative terminal value. Ackman is starting off with assets of much higher quality and that are beginning to generate a lot of excess cash. A lot of work has to be done, but I’m happy to hold my shares here. If you’re interested in learning more about the real estate operations, I’ve attached my $HHH report from November of 2023–obviously outdated, but should help get you up to speed on the history, RE strategy, and asset base—and I will be putting out an updated report after the details of the insurance acquisition are announced. https://t.co/ueKI0TWY9R

@LaughingH20Cap Nov 10

Laughing Water Capital on X

below relates to how the extreme upside case for $NN spectrum could develop. Satellite direct to phone requires low band spectrum to be effective. $AAPL may want to control its own satellite destiny. There simply is not much low band to go around. https://t.co/Z2JM9yR7tk https://t.co/5NRaPZlWMI

@AltaFoxCapital Nov 6 2 clicks

Connor Haley on X

Numbers are not wrong-- this was a 1% change to Adj. EBITDA in 2024 and free cash flow was unchanged. This is a recent spin and there is a lot of noise below the line. This is a new CFO who flagged this and we think is doing a great job. FCF/share (ex-WC) should grow 30%+ next year (actual FCF much higher given normalization of WC). Big valuation discount vs $DBD despite much faster and higher-quality growth.

@AltaFoxCapital Nov 6 2 clicks

Connor Haley on X

Good quarter from $NATL and thesis on track. -The ATMaaS business continues to outperform... 37% y/y growth in Q3... and it's on track to be 40%+ in Q4, well ahead of our expectations -SSB delivered >50% incremental EBITDA margins in Q3, fueling 21% EBITDA growth for the segment

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 31

Laughing Water Capital on X

@MGardnerDA1235 @yummyCenturyEgg @dylan55917 $NN has wanted to collaborate with the opposition for ~18 months. They repeatedly talk about how they want "engineer to engineer conversations", but the opposition will not engage. 1 explanation is b/c the opposition knows what the tests will say, but yes real tests are possible

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 31

Laughing Water Capital on X

@yummyCenturyEgg @MGardnerDA1235 @dylan55917 4/x) for tolls, why slightly moving part of 2 of the 3 technologies by a few mhz crazy? $NN has said this would cost "tens of millions." no big deal. Not to mention that half of toll reading is already done by camera an AI. Why use limited spectrum when better tech is available? https://t.co/75Yxn4PCu4

Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is On

Vista Energy's Q2 2026 production rose 32% and revenue 89% as Vaca Muerta acquisitions expand its Argentine export platform and cash…

VIST $7.1B

Alan Galecki Sep 25 5 clicks

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…

FLY $3.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 24 16 clicks

Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation

Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…

BIRK $5.3B

Roman Vitasek Sep 24 4 clicks

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…

ZIM $3.5B

Calvin Blissett Sep 23 15 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

ONDS $4.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 23 4 clicks

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Strategic Crossroads - Acquisition Or Dividend Bonanza Ahead

ZIM faces Israeli review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-per-share bid, with $2.46 billion cash and elevated transpacific rates supporting potential…

ZIM $3.5B

Melissa Tucker Sep 23

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…

FOUR $2.9B

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 22 21 clicks

Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH

Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a…

VSH $5.8B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 22 6 clicks

Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead

Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…

CLBT $2.8B

Aurelion Research Sep 22 9 clicks

Meta's Muse Could be Big Win for Innodata

Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale…

INOD $2.4B

Hunterbrook Sep 22 12 clicks

MBGL · long

Mobility Global INC -spn

Mobility Global Inc. will become a standalone public company through S&P Global’s spin-off of its Mobility division.

MBGL $5.2B

Value Investors Club Jun 25 2 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII

Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue…

FLY $3.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 22 9 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure, Corning And More

Undercovered Dozen spotlights 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure and Corning.

RITM $5B

The Undercovered Dozen Sep 22

Emeth Value Capital’s Andrew Carreon on Shift4 ($FOUR)

Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…

FOUR $2.9B

Yet Another Value Blog Sep 22 4 clicks

Quick Value #331 - Corteva / Vylor Spin-Off

Corteva will spin off its Pioneer seed business, Vylor, on October 1, leaving crop protection RemainCo that could trade at 6.5-8.5x 2026…

CTVA $8.4B

Value Don't Lie Sep 21 5 clicks

[CoStar] Homes are different

CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…

ZG $6.3B

scuttleblurb Sep 21 4 clicks

I Tested Three Cannibals Against Dillard’s. I Bought Two. (CROX, CNX, GPI)

Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes…

CROX $5.7BCNX $4.7B

Cannibal Stocks Sep 20 2 clicks

Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO

Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.

MTN $5.1BGEO $4B

Ian’s Insider Corner Sep 20 9 clicks

Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.

Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale…

CROX $5.7B

Cannibal Stocks Sep 19 5 clicks

Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)

Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…

UCTT $3.5B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 18 2 clicks

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Little Owl Research on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Connor Haley on X

Connor Haley on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

Newsletters 93

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 43 of 207

X accounts we follow

Investor letters we follow

Sectors