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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

Honeywell Aerospace, newly spun off as HONA, fell 41% from post-listing highs after Q2 2026 as supply-chain bottlenecks delayed revenue catch-up despite long-lived aerospace aftermarket…

HONA $49B
D Invests 13 clicks

From X

@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH booked $3.6 million in mobile-defibrillator connector orders, lifting its medical revenue outlook and diversifying beyond aerospace and…

IEHC $73M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 12 clicks
ANAB · long

Anaptysbio INC

AnaptysBio is pitched for a 50% to 80% return over four to six weeks after its April 2026 taxable spin-off of R&D-heavy operations.

ANAB $1.5B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $36MHHS $34M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 8 clicks

Portillo’s: Strategic Reset

Portillo’s reset follows weak Texas unit economics, cutting next year’s openings to five from roughly 10 annually and shrinking store…

PTLO $272M
TSOH Investment Research

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $94B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

AppLovin: Deep Dive Analysis

AppLovin’s Axon AI matches advertisers with profitable users while MAX auctions app inventory, as investors question whether its…

APP $95B
Hated Moats 1 click

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