Thursday, September 24, 2026

Long Opportunities In Semiconductor Capital Equipment Part I - ASML, AMAT, LRCX

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste: Quant Ratings Say Sell, But The Underlying Moat Says Strong Buy

ASR’s $992 million Motiva acquisition broadens its South American airport network after a 25% YTD decline, while its 8.5% FCF yield and…

ASR $6.4B

SA C Jessen Sep 24 3 clicks

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…

Turning Point Brands: The Market Is Now Overly Concerned (Rating Upgrade)

Turning Point Brands reaffirmed 2026 guidance after a CEO change, while ALP and FRE expansion has compressed margins through marketing and…

TPB $1.1B

SA Caffital Research Sep 23 1 click

Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

New Era Energy & Digital: 207 MW Deal Could Unlock 1.4 GW AI Giant

New Era Energy & Digital secured a 20-year Vistra power deal for 200 to 207 MW, reducing Phase 1 risk for its planned 1.4 GW West Texas AI…

NUAI $670M

SA Ryan Canady Sep 23

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH

Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a…

FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

TEM 2026-08-20

Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance

Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…

TEM $15BMRNA $81B

SA Robert J. Lake Aug 20 2 clicks

Roblox: Accepting Uncertainty

Roblox reached 144 million DAUs and 123.9 billion engagement hours by 2025, but Q3 FY26 bookings are set to fall mid-teens, renewing calls…

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

BHP 2026-08-20

BHP: Stop Calling This An Iron Ore Stock

BHP expects copper to generate over half of FY2026 EBITDA and plans a 40% production increase by FY2035 after profit, free cash flow and…

BHP $217B

SA On the Pulse Aug 20 1 click

The Navy’s Best Kept $180M Secret

Espey Mfg. & Electronics, ESP, supplies sole-source power systems for Navy Virginia and Columbia submarines, retaining fixed-price…

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

APP 2026-08-19

AppLovin: Here's How I See 3 Catalysts That Could Drive Valuation Re-Rating

AppLovin’s AXON 2.0 self-serve rollout, e-commerce onboarding and Connected TV expansion aim to revive growth after Q2 2026 revenue and…

APP $95B

SA KL Research Aug 19 1 click