Copart 4Q26 Business Update: Thesis Shift?
Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite international growth.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $454MALM $4B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $78BMA $496B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $276B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $246BMCK $100B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $501M9301 $3.4B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1.1BVNP $1.9B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
Dassault Aviation: Rafale Upside Makes This A Strong Buy
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Dhierin Bechai 1 click
Adobe 3Q26 Update
Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.
[scuttleslops] Amazon grocery, John Deere and AI, picks and pans in P&C Insurance, Copart earnings and the ACV acquisition
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Cestrian Rating Actions - Week Ending 11 September 2026
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The Straits Strategist 
Adobe 3Q26 Update: Nothing Broken, Nothing Explained
Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth was about 9.3% excluding Semrush.
Enel Chile S.A.: Cheap, Profitable, And Operating In Chile's Next Great Energy Revolution
Enel Chile uses battery storage and grid management to turn renewable oversupply into flexibility, lifting H1 2026 EBITDA 3.9% and net…
Ryan Canady 4 clicks
Alarm.com: False Alarm?
Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…
Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1
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GTLB · long Gitlab INC
Undercovered Dozen: Ares Capital, Grab, Lenovo, Rigetti And More
Undercovered Dozen profiles 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Ares Capital, Grab, Lenovo and Rigetti.
Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup
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Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026
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Nintendo: The Software Payoff Is Still Ahead
Nintendo expects software, digital sales and character licensing to drive growth, with FY2027 revenue forecast at ¥2.05 trillion and…
LL Insights 
AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap
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USA Compression targets nearly 30% full-year EBITDA growth as JW Power synergies, telemetry and maintenance reduce costs; its units yield…
Ron Ferrie 3 clicks
Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…
Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound
Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…
The Five Deals That Made Apollo
Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…
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