When Anyone Can Make a Movie, Netflix Still Wins
Netflix’s roughly $20 billion content budget can become an editorial advantage as generative AI cuts production costs and floods viewers with synthetic content.
Saturday, September 5, 2026
From X
David Orr on X
$GS should have ponied up the money. https://t.co/isJsSGuEzB
David Orr on X
Great companies are built by doing things differently, taking risks. $IBKR https://t.co/3sLFcI0ImD
Chris Camillo on X
@UncleAlpha007 FCL is a pretty useless valuation metric for a company deliberately reinvesting to fund explosive growth. And there’s a massive spread of outcomes on what $BE revenue even looks like in 2030.
Trevor Scott on X
@kashyap286 $GOOS?
SG on X
@rossiadam never thought of $TSLA FSD from the perspective of the elderly. Probably a great solution as FSD gets better but this has to be the worst demographic in terms of reaction time to grab the wheel if something goes wrong.
Lee Roach on X
The egg market is getting killed and I am tempted to play this cycle bottom. Anyone up to speed on $VITL? This thing is looking so beaten down. https://t.co/wUgfMUorWW
Chris Camillo on X
@topazbenj he saw a video. if u been following me u know id love nothing more than to go all in on $TSLA with real optimus intel. believe me im on it
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $503MALM $5.1B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $509B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $227B
- Fred Alger Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6BSUSRF $276M
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $242BMCK $106B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $494M8011 $243M
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1BVNP $1.7B
The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does
Rayonier’s 4.0 million acres are valued at $393 an acre after other assets, versus $1,200 to $1,800 cutover-land sales, framing the timber…
Spare a Thought for Broadcom Shareholders
Broadcom’s FY2028 revenue estimate rose from $162 billion to about $270 billion and EPS from $17.60 to $30, while the stock remained flat…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…
Broadcom: The AI Tollbooth Is Becoming An Earnings Machine
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% year over year as custom silicon programs and VMware software cash flows fund further…
Simple Investment Ideas 4 clicks
[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…
Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.
Selling Where They Ain’t
Dollar General’s Q2 FY26 comparable sales rose 3.5%, beating Walmart U.S.
Netflix: A Second Monetization Cycle Is Just Getting Started
Netflix targets $51–51.4 billion of 2026 revenue, $3 billion of advertising revenue and $12.5 billion of free cash flow as its second…
The Curious Analyst 3 clicks
A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
Chevron Stock Is A Bargain Amid Venezuela Deal
Chevron committed $7 billion to expand Venezuelan output as record U.S. production and elevated oil prices lifted Q2 earnings.
Bay Area Ideas 3 clicks
In Conversation: Cerebras Systems (CBRS)
Cerebras Systems sells WSE-3 wafer-scale AI chips and cloud capacity, with cloud and services rising to 43% of revenue after an OpenAI…
The Mega-Cap Opportunity: Meta & Microsoft!
Meta and Microsoft are framed as mega-cap opportunities based on business quality and valuation.
Salesforce Can Lose the Interface and Still Win
Salesforce's 8.62x forward cash flow valuation discounts AI seat cannibalization, while Agentforce, Data 360 and MuleSoft aim to retain…
Matan on Stitch Fix
Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…
Deep Dive: Amazon (Updated)
Amazon’s AWS grew 28%, with a $364 billion backlog, supporting the case that up to $200 billion of annual AI capex can earn solid returns.
Under The Hood - Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.
Sprouts Farmers Market’s 483-store fresh-food format combines dedicated distribution, curated assortments and long-built site selection,…
$50M Cash, No Debt, 0.74x Book: A Deep-Value Machine Tool Setup
A debt-free machine tool company with $50 million in cash trades at 0.74 times book value and below net current asset value.
MercadoLibre: Valuation Model
MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…
Meta On the Offense!
Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 targets agentic enterprise work, backed by employee workflow data and 3,000 engineers building reinforcement-learning…
U-Haul Bought at the Top
U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…
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