When Anyone Can Make a Movie, Netflix Still Wins
Netflix’s roughly $20 billion content budget can become an editorial advantage as generative AI cuts production costs and floods viewers with synthetic content.
Saturday, September 5, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
catechwilliams on X
@Mike10947310 $CVGW Sources >90% of its avocados from Michoacan, MX. $CMG purchases ~10% of tot US avocados. Its latest ESG report noted “diversifying away from Mexican suppliers.” This latest drama down there will almost certainly accelerate sourcing away from $CVGW, etc.
Voss Capital on X
Here is a link to our Q1 2024 letter. https://t.co/mVYPJrgCr1 $SWI $IMXI $ALTG $GENI $RTO $RCM $SLCA @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
catechwilliams on X
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
catechwilliams on X
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $503MALM $5.1B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $507B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $227B
- Fred Alger Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMZN $2.8TGOOGL $4.2T
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $242BMCK $106B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 079940 $421MUNVGY $26B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $4.1BSGE $13B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 AUTO $5.3BGNRC $11B
Looking For A 2027 Defense Play: Honeywell Fits The Bill
Petri Dish Reports 5 clicks
Spare a Thought for Broadcom Shareholders
Broadcom’s FY2028 revenue estimate rose from $162 billion to about $270 billion and EPS from $17.60 to $30, while the stock remained flat…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…
[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
Veeva targets CRM share gains from Salesforce migration delays while Falcon agentic labor expands its reach into life-sciences safety,…
Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.
Selling Where They Ain’t
Dollar General’s Q2 FY26 comparable sales rose 3.5%, beating Walmart U.S.
Netflix: A Second Monetization Cycle Is Just Getting Started
Netflix targets $51–51.4 billion of 2026 revenue, $3 billion of advertising revenue and $12.5 billion of free cash flow as its second…
The Curious Analyst 3 clicks
AVGO US - Do Nothing Pending The Close On Thursday 3 September - Q3 FY10/26 Earnings Review.
Broadcom reported $29.6 billion Q3 revenue, up 86%, with AI semiconductor sales up 221% to $16.7 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $34.8…
Notes from a Dasher Shift, and the Drone Delivery Future
DoorDash’s delivery economics rely on customer tips and flexible labor, while rising courier costs make autonomous delivery central to…
IREN's Customers Are Starting To Fund The Build
IREN’s AI contracts now include customer prepayments covering 45% to 55% of GPU CapEx, while three-year pricing has risen 125% since…
Quantryon Capital 10 clicks
Top 8 Rebound Stocks for Sep’26
Genuine Parts Company is one of eight potential rebound stocks on RC’s September 2026 watchlist.
Amazon $AMZN: The Company That Became Impossible to Ignore — and Finally Possible to Model
Amazon reported $200.6 billion in quarterly revenue and $27.5 billion in operating income as AWS grew 36.7% and advertising 26%, making its…
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings
CrowdStrike posted 25.8% Q2 revenue growth and $333 million of net new ARR, while FY27 ARR guidance rose to 34% despite a 150% stock rally…
The Bid Shading Threat to Amazon Advertising
Amazon’s $69 billion advertising business faces an FTC lawsuit over alleged bid shading, threatening a revenue stream that grew roughly…
Undercovered Dozen: JPMorgan, Sezzle, Kayne Anderson And More
Undercovered Dozen profiles 12 lesser-covered stocks, including JPMorgan, Sezzle and Kayne Anderson, to surface under-the-radar equity…
The Undercovered Dozen 2 clicks
WD #356: Software/AI, Estee Lauder, Various Brazilian Stocks
LLM adoption is rising but may not generate returns sufficient to justify current AI investment; the aggressive portfolio exits Estee…
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q3: Margins Matter More Than AI Orders
Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Q3 hinges on converting AI-networking orders while preserving its 21.6% segment margin, after booking $1.8…
Deep Value Investing 3 clicks
Palantir Q2 - We Move To “Distribute” Rating For 48hrs, Then To “Do Nothing”.
Palantir shares at $183 exceed Cestrian’s $177 target after Q2 revenue grew 93%, prompting a 48-hour Distribute rating as Q3 growth…
Dollar Tree: Weathering The Storm
Dollar Tree’s $1.25 opening price and multi-price assortment supported 10% two-year comparable-sales growth, outpacing Walmart U.S.
PayPal: Stripe Reportedly Walks Away; Here Are 2 Fallback Options
PayPal's failed Stripe and Advent bid leaves a Venmo spin-off or aggressive buybacks as value-unlocking options amid slowing growth and a…
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