Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while exempting direct messages from usage limits.
Friday, August 28, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 EVGGF $17BNVO $175B
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 MELI $92BSE $63B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BCBZ $3B
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81BIX $42B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $42BBABA $288B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 ORCL $437B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter CLBT $2.9BHGTY $4.7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $99BADYEN $33B
BHVN 2026-08-27 Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Biohaven’s $795 million global opakalim licensing deal with SK Biopharmaceuticals boosts cash, lowers R&D spending and extends its funding…
Edmund Ingham 1 click
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
HMY 2026-08-24 Harmony Gold Mining: A Copper Pioneer By Capitalizing On The Gold Tailwind (Reaffirming Buy)
Harmony Gold targets copper at roughly 40% of future production, diversifying gold exposure while increasing sensitivity to commodity…
Prakhar Agarwal, CFA 4 clicks
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
FUTU 2026-08-23 Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report
Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…
Emanuel Nemec 4 clicks
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
VSEC · long Vse CORP
VSE Corp trades at $185, with a stated $246 fair value and 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA of 15x.
ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
ACI Worldwide’s payment software segment grew 9% with a 48% adjusted EBITDA margin, while the company targets 50-60% of operating cash flow…
SiliconBytes Insights 1 click
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
Walmart’s Evolution
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
PLTR 2026-08-21 Palantir Just Turned Its Biggest Weakness Into A Strength
Palantir’s revenue rose 93% to $1.94 billion as U.S. commercial bookings jumped 149%, lifting GAAP operating margin to 47% and free cash…
Quantryon Capital 1 click
Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
NBIS 2026-08-20 Nebius: The Market Is Arguing About The Wrong Number
Nebius posted 454% revenue growth and a 41% EBITDA margin, while Meta’s $27 billion agreement supports its AI infrastructure backlog.
The Quality Growth Investor 1 click
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
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Newsletters 91
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Blogs 12
Seeking Alpha 30 of 166
Andres Veurink
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
Miletus Research
Myriam Alvarez
Petri Dish Reports
Philip Wang- Prakhar Agarwal, CFA
PV Research
Robert J. Lake
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Sharon McArd- SiliconBytes Insights
Simple Investment Ideas
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Value Capital Research
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A Capital
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Barbarian Capital
BDC
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catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
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Colin King
Connor Haley
Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
Devin LaSarre
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maius
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
Odd Diligence
Odd Lot Arbitrageur
PAA Research
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Prepared Remarks
Psyop Capital
Raging Capital Ventures
Red Dog Capital
RiverRoadPartners
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
SG
Sheel Mohnot
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
Todd Wenning
ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
- Asset Value Investors Ltd
- Baron Funds
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- Bireme Capital
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- Broyhill Asset Management
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- Cedar Creek Partners
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- Crossroads Capital, LLC
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- Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
- Donville Kent Asset Management Inc.
- FPA Crescent Fund
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- Fred Alger Management, LLC
- Giverny Capital
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- Hoisington Investment Management
- Horizon Kinetics
- Intrepid Capital
- Invenomic Capital Management
- Janus Henderson Investors
- Kaydan Wealth Management
- Kernow Asset Management
- LVS Advisory
- Laughing Water Capital
- Lindsell Train Limited
- Macro Ops
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- Markel Group
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- Merion Road Capital
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory
- Oakmark Funds
- Palm Harbour Capital
- Palm Valley Capital
- Patient Capital Management
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V.
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
- Pershing Square Holdings
- Polaris Capital Management
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities
- Polen Capital U.S. Opportunistic High Yield
- Praetorian Capital
- Protean Funds
- RGA Investment Advisors
- Rowan Street Capital
- Royce Investment Partners
- Sequoia Fund
- Southeastern Asset Management
- Third Avenue Management
- Tweedy, Browne
- Upslope Capital Management
- Vulcan Value Partners
- Wedgewood Partners
- Weitz Investment Management
- White Falcon Capital Management
Sectors
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