Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Maj Soueidan on X
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
JabroniCoin.USD on X
How many times will Peltz rug $WEN with totally not-fake bids? https://t.co/7YmTsnbaZy
JabroniCoin.USD on X
UBS on $CENX generating nearly $1 bn in 2026 FCF (v ~$800m consensus) Post this week, that Midwest premium looks solid for 2026… so that volume ramp should translate into higher numbers in Q3 and Q4 https://t.co/dhrEiBFWFf
mavix on X
Will be interesting to finally see the first look of the new Shelly Camera! $SLYG https://t.co/dWIQfPA150
Charles Frischer on X
@JohnTwomey16 I think the podcast speaks for itself. The FCC is trying to light all available spectrum. Likely includes the 900 MHz owned by $NN.
Charles Frischer on X
$NN. This podcast is must listening. Doesn’t mention NN by name, but amazing insights into FCC strategy under Chairman Carr. This Week: The FCC's Spectrum Pipeline with Arpan Sura - The Week with Roger | Podcast on Spotify https://t.co/tSebqMRetN
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $946MVVVNF $1.8B
- Protean Funds July 2026 STOR-B $1.7BTRUE-B $615M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 MIPS $1B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 AORT $1.2BCENX $3.9B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 CNX $4.9BFBIN $4.8B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 MIAX $3.8B
TPC 2026-08-27 Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…
The Curious Analyst 
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
Redfern Research 
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
SLS · short Sellas Life Sciences Group I
SELLAS Life Sciences Group faces a short case arguing that even a strong clinical outcome does not support its current valuation.
Hallador's "Beautiful, Clean Coal": Near Term Catalyst w/ 200% Upside ($HNRG)
Hallador Energy's Merom plant cleared a MISO review, setting up a potential data-center PPA that could transform the coal miner into a…
Comeback Season: Evolv Eyes Positive FCF, 40% ARR Growth, and Reputational Revival in '25 ($EVLV)
Evolv ($EVLV) targets positive free cash flow and 40% ARR growth in 2025 as delayed filings, an FTC resolution, and leadership changes seek…
CYD and H22 Results First Take:
CYD’s FY24 earnings miss reflected ¥200m of one-offs; adjusted net income reached roughly ¥430m and operating cash flow rose 40%.
Insureco w/ Potential Strat Alts Announcement Soon + 100% Upside on Buyout ($TIPT)
Tiptree ($TIPT) is positioned around a potential Fortegra sale announcement; Fortegra generates substantially all revenue.
Portfolio Updates
CYD was sold near $21 versus an $11 entry after exceeding a $19.50 target; proceeds moved to H22.SI, whose CYD stake implies $1.30 NAV and…
Hong Leong Asia: Unveiling Undervalued Gems in CYD’s Parent Company
Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22) has 40% base-case upside, driven by its CYD stake’s data-center opportunity and Singapore-Malaysia…
Unpacking eDreams' Capital Markets Day
EDreams nears 7.25 million Prime members and €180 million of Cash EBITDA, marking its shift from an online travel agency to a…
The Strategic Value of eDreams
EDreams’ Prime travel subscription model makes the €3.6 billion European OTA a potential Uber, Airbnb or Amazon acquisition target.
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
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