Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns

Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.

AMZN $2.7T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 25 3 clicks

Aug 24 ADYEY $31B

Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen

MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

Aug 23 ABNB $99B

Core Memory

MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

From X

@catechwilliams May 22 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.

@catechwilliams May 9 2 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$ACA Levered roll-up (4x levered) hodgepodge of low-quality cap intensive commodity businesses w struggling end-markets (sub-scale aggregates, building products, ag). Negative organic growth w unrealistic guidance. Forced to sell an asset to avoid covenant breach. 30x P/E

@rusholmecapital Mar 1

Rusholme Capital on X

I'm not finding much of interest in this market. Few notes to myself so that I can look back and see how wrong I was: - Software & semi are expensive, but always are. I'm watching $CDW which posted its first revenue growth in a long time - Not finding much of interest in healthcare. Medtech is ex-growth and expensive. Lot of names under pressure from Trump cost cutting - Valuations for financials have gotten stretched. I'm trimming some big winners here - High-ticket consumer goods are struggling, but travel remains strong. Seeing green shoots in Canadian housing. I'm careful with the Canadian cannabis renaissance - Canadian OFS is topping out and transport is getting killed. Several cheap packaging names, but no growth

@catechwilliams Feb 28 3 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.

@catechwilliams Feb 12 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses

@catechwilliams Feb 11

catechwilliams on X

$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.

@catechwilliams Feb 5

catechwilliams on X

$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.

@catechwilliams Dec 19

catechwilliams on X

$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s

FUTU 2026-08-23

Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report

Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…

FUTU $15B

Emanuel Nemec Aug 23 4 clicks

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.5B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 13 clicks

BAC 2026-08-20

Bank of America Preferreds: Better Propositions Available Than Series GG

Bank of America’s BAC.PR.B yields just over 6% near par, while discounted lower-coupon series such as BAC.PR.P offer better value despite…

BAC $375B

Prakhar Agarwal, CFA Aug 20 1 click

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

TEM 2026-08-20

Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance

Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…

TEM $12BMRNA $79B

Robert J. Lake Aug 20 2 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.1B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

IREN $15B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18 12 clicks

$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital

Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…

NU $74B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 17 9 clicks

The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville

Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…

GOOGL $4.2TMETA $1.8T

The Monetary Matters Network Aug 16 10 clicks

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…

HUBS $12B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

JBTM · long

JBT Marel Corporation

JBT Marel is an enduring food-equipment business with low AI risk, automation upside and favorable GLP-1 exposure.

JBTM $5.4B

Value Investors Club May 26

SEZL 2026-08-23

Sezzle: The Numbers Don't Support The Selloff

Sezzle fell 20% after Q2 despite a revenue and EPS beat and higher guidance, as marketing spending and seasonality drove a sequential…

SEZL $3.8B

Daniel James Aug 23 3 clicks

The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket

Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…

DASH $83B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 22 9 clicks

NVDA 2026-08-22

Nvidia: It's All About SpaceX Now

Nvidia’s exclusive SpaceX partnership targets a 10 GW data-center buildout and could add $120 billion to $230 billion of revenue beyond…

NVDA $5.5T

Uttam Dey Aug 22 2 clicks

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

WMT $877BPYPL $47B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 21 4 clicks

Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash

Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.

DASH $83B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 20 5 clicks

NBIS 2026-08-20

Nebius: The Market Is Arguing About The Wrong Number

Nebius posted 454% revenue growth and a 41% EBITDA margin, while Meta’s $27 billion agreement supports its AI infrastructure backlog.

NBIS $60B

The Quality Growth Investor Aug 20 2 clicks

AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…

MSFT $3.9TAMZN $2.7T

Steve Eisman Aug 14 10 clicks

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.8B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $6BKSS $2.2B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 10 clicks

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

catechwilliams on X

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Rusholme Capital on X

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