TFPM 2026-08-22 Triple Flag Precious Metals: Ravenswood Turns Optionality Into Duration
Capital Connoisseur Saturday, August 22, 2026
TFPM 2026-08-22 Capital Connoisseur Aug 22 UUUU $3.7B Energy Fuels: The Largest Combined Uranium And Rare Earth Company In North America
Joseph L. Shaefer Aug 22 LLY $1.2T Eli Lilly: Shaking Off Competition From The Dethroned Novo Nordisk
JR Research From X
catechwilliams on X
$FGMC $3.5B mkt cap tiny home builder. $1M sales. -1,000% GMs. Incinerating cash. 83% SPAC redemption, only $14M in cash. Auditor: "substantial going concern doubts.” Modular homes industry littered with recent bankruptcies. Dubious leadership backgrounds.
catechwilliams on X
$POET $2.5B market cap Canada-based (formerly TSXV-listed) semi component designer. Perennially on the verge of commercialization ($1.4M LTM sales, hemorrhaging cash). Heavily promoted into a $400M offering on 5/18. Dubious order w related party, FEOC, PFIC, among many issues.
catechwilliams on X
Marlin Business Services, $MRLN, says it is developing pilotless technology despite drone and autopilot systems having existed for years.
catechwilliams on X
$MRLN. Recent SPAC. Development-stage science project attempting to make autonomous airplanes. Even if they ever get FAA approval, it will take a brave sole to get in a plane with no pilot and/or send high value cargo. Many existing autopilot competitors. Burning $70M/ year.
catechwilliams on X
$GPGI Stagnating credit card manufacturer (fka CompoSecure). Levered up 4x to acquire commodity plastic injection molding company Husky. Last month CEO departed, this week CEO and CFO of Husky left. Now rudderless with very ambitious guidance almost certain to get revised lower.
catechwilliams on X
$ANDG. Resurrected Arthur Andersen of Enron fame. Provides small business valuation and tax services—being disintermediated by AI, highly competitive. Ironically reported a material weakness in internal controls. Aggressive growth and valuation. Multiple other red flags.
catechwilliams on X
$HERE: pop toy fad crashing like Beanie Babies. #1 selling product prices plunging 90% during critical holiday period. $HERE revenue and margins will be impacted severely. https://t.co/czXxPRZTZy
catechwilliams on X
AI data-center vacancy rates are 2-3% as tenants scramble for compute capacity; a customer loss raises doubts that WYFI can replace it after NC-1 performance issues.
Investor Letters
All letters
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
Walmart’s Evolution
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
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The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
The Monetary Matters Network
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
The Oak Bloke
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
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