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Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXX

Golar LNG’s fourth FLNG vessel targets 3.5MTPA capacity and a 2029 delivery, supporting projected adjusted EBITDA above $1 billion in fiscal 2029.

GLNG $4.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

The optical engine accounts for over 50% of an optical transceiver's cost, and it contains the most demanding alignment work in the module. For years, engines were built by active alignment: a technician switched on the laser and nudged parts into position until the light coupled. That was workable at 10G, 25G and 100G. At 400G and 800G the tolerances became too tight for manual assembly, and demand driven by AI exceeded what human throughput could supply. $POET's Optical Interposer replaces active alignment with passive assembly. It is a silicon wafer with waveguides and mechanical guides etched into it. Lasers, detectors and electronics are placed on it by automated pick-and-place machines, with nothing powered up during assembly. The parts align passively at the wafer level, much as Lego bricks fit together by their shape. The effect shows up at the transceiver maker. The engine arrives pre-aligned on a standardised substrate, so the remaining assembly looks like conventional electronics manufacturing. Foxconn does that kind of work at high volume, and it was historically locked out of optical transceivers because building them required deep photonic expertise around the engine. Our note's reading is that the interposer takes on the optical complexity so assemblers such as Foxconn, Luxshare, and LITEON do not have to, which helps relieve one of the bottlenecks in optical connectivity for AI clusters.
@pennycheck

⚽️📡 on X

I really think this can be a meaningful catalyst for Blacksky Aside from it opening a new vertical and revenue stream, as well as a entirely new TAM. The social arbitrage when every retail investor realizes how cool this tech is and the company behind the imagery and the AI read through on what the images says can be extreme. It is rolling out at first 4 observation sets related to 24 companies but obviously that is only the beginning. I believe this can be the start of a broader inflection of blackskys role in the mega theme i've been discussing the past few months of the value of proprietary data to increase exponentially over the coming months and years as advanced AI capabilities make the value and ease of monetization of proprietary data extremely valueable which also leads into how $BKSY edge in gen-3 having 35cm over the 50cm of competitors planet and satellogic become all the more valuable as AI tools. Many of these data 'moat' stocks have begun to re-rate in the past few months and I think this release on robinhood could be the start of that inflection in the sat names with blacksky leading the way to the social arb aspect of being integrated into hood as mentioned earier. $BKSY is also starting to become a massive beneficiary of the sovereign space infra spend which i've discussed and highlighted before with a now robust pipeline on sovereign deals through 27' as they discussed on the call. They also have moonshot upside working with the Air Force on orbital data centers. Shorts have begun to cover but still have a looooong way to go 20% is still short and as you probably know I am not a big TA guy but even i can spot a triple bottom I think it's a decent risk/reward assuming mkt can hold up a bit here

Investor Letters

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MGRC · long

Mcgrath Rentcorp

McGrath RentCorp's conservatively financed hard assets, pricing growth and a struggling competitor, WSC, underpin the long thesis.

MGRC $2.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Investment idea: Flowers Foods (FLO)

Flowers Foods cut its dividend to fund $300 million of debt reduction by 2027 after the $795 million Simple Mills acquisition lifted…

FLO $1.2B
Nugget Capital Partner's Substack

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $946M
Irrational Analysis

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