Thursday, October 1, 2026

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $682M

The Mikro Kap Oct 1 3 clicks

Sep 30 YB $553M

NASDAQ:YB 10% dividend, 2x P/E, 30% growth, AI beneficiary, secular tailwinds, founder CEO I think is as good as Bezos/Walton

Calvin Blissett 4 clicks

Sep 30 IMXI $349M

3 Mergers and 1 Liquidation in the Danger Zone

Triple S Special Situations Investing

From X

@psyopcapital Jun 23

Psyop Capital on X

Is contextlogic interesting/worth digging into? $LOGC. I really like the Salt acquisition but seems like they paid a rich multiple for it. Fear this will end up in the graveyard of mini-Berkshires over time

@ActAccordingly Jun 23

PAA Research on X

FWIW, I'm pretty sure Doug Lebda of $TREE experienced a (-95%)-(-99%) drawdown in 2000, 2008, and again post COVID-19. The company was purchased by $IAC and then spun out again after the dotcom bubble burst. Of course that implies that $TREE was a 10+ bagger on two separate occasions. RIP Mr. Lebda.

@BrokenMoats Jun 16

Broken Moats on X

$SLP buyout today ends an ugly few years for the company. The core simulation software business, even in this ai world, still presents lots of value as key models are used by the FDA in drug approval process. But the management team after the founder stepped back destroyed the company with one destructive acquisition after another. Diluted the software with a heavy concentration on commoditized services revenue and less differentiated software assets, all purchased at high multiples to show "revenue growth". Mgmt destroyed the free cash flow, decimated the share price over the tenure but did allow management to rack up steadily increased compensation for themselves by growing the "size" of the company. A good case study in how poor management can take a wide moat business and turn it into a lousy one pretty fast. I imagine the new PE owners can extract out the bad business and excessive costs and generate a good return focusing on the original assets.

@BrokenMoats Jun 10

Broken Moats on X

$LLY has nlrp3 trials so that would just put them in the same conversation no with a head start? Agree its valuable to NVO but wouldn't the derivatives like a $BIOA get more juice of ZEUS then $NVO from validating the space. I like NVO but management shoots themselves in the foot constantly and AZN etc competition on weight loss is coming

@mavix_leon May 30

mavix on X

Portfolio end of May '26: Centrotec $CEV.HM Toyokumo $4058 Evolution $EVO Secunet Security Networks $YSN BioRem $BRM.V Leatt $LEAT -undisclosed- Shelly Group $SLYG Enogia $ALENO.PA (prev. undisclosed) ErreDue $RDUE Lindbergh $LDB.MI -undisclosed- Circle Group $CIRC.MI (1/2) https://t.co/ZCsmkvYuTS

@marginofdanger May 29

marginofdanger on X

$TIPT director buys ~1k shares at 17.45 on Wednesday and Fortegra deal should close today https://t.co/HYVSdjXcO9

@mavix_leon May 29 2 clicks

mavix on X

I just published my Portfolio Update for May 2026. It includes: ▫️My current portfolio & position sizes ▫️Earnings Updates about $YSN, $SLYG, $LEAT, $4058, $CIRC.MI, $BRM.V ▫️Recent news about $TRT.L, $4058, $CIRC.MI, $EVO https://t.co/ZFcIyaEFr7

@marginofdanger May 22 1 click

marginofdanger on X

$TIPT filed an 8-K this morning where they said they expected the Fortegra deal to close by Friday 5/29. Pro forma TBV is ~$24/share, stock last 17.17.

Investor Letters

All letters

Cullinan Therapeutics: Compelling Pullback For CLN-978's Potential In Autoimmune Diseases

Cullinan Therapeutics plans December 2026 autoimmune updates for CLN-978, while zipalertinib awaits an FDA decision in previously treated…

CGEM $997M

Myriam Alvarez Sep 29 2 clicks

VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete

VersaBank uses cash holdbacks and put-backs to buy point-of-sale loan cash flows, with C$7 billion in assets and AI-enabled real-time…

VBNK $720M

Substack von Philipp Sep 26 5 clicks

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $642M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Sep 25 12 clicks

Is The Bond Market Running On Empty?

U.S. Treasury yields are testing credit and equity markets, while the discussion also targets recent changes at Glass House (GLAS).

GLAS $466M

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Sep 25 1 click

Kronos Worldwide: Benefiting From Sulfur Shortage

Kronos Worldwide’s 27% inventory reduction added $120 million in cash inflows as chloride-based TiO₂ demand rises amid a sulfur shortage.

KRO $895M

Given Mahlangu Sep 23

ARKO. 3x Owner’s Earnings multiple, 21% ROCE, Founders involved and large shareholders, Stake in a public company>market cap. Superb Capital Allocators

ARKO trades at 3 times estimated 2025 owner’s earnings, while its 73.6% APC stake exceeds its $473 million market cap.

ARKO $453M

Calvin Blissett Sep 21 4 clicks

Bumble, 2x Owner’s Earnings. Sentiment is abysmal, the founder is back. The stock could easily be a multibagger.

Bumble trades at roughly 2x owner’s earnings and 4.76x enterprise value, with Whitney Wolfe Herd’s return central to a rerating case.

BMBL $335M

Calvin Blissett Sep 20 4 clicks

This Week in Special Situations: Cooper Companies, Sturm Ruger, Grab Holdings, Boston Omaha

Special-situations survey flags Cooper’s $3 billion buyback, Grab’s $900 million repurchase, and Beretta’s $44.80 partial tender for Sturm…

RGR $699M

Latticework by MOI Global Sep 18 1 click

Pioneer Bancorp Has One Too Many Red Flags

Pioneer Bancorp’s acquisitions lifted loans 13.6% and Q2 net interest margin to 4.30%, but expenses, weaker profitability ratios and a…

PBFS $446M

Crimson And Gold Research Sep 17 4 clicks

The Groupon Turnaround — Dušan Šenkypl & Rana Kashyap | Ep. 3

Groupon CEO Dušan Šenkypl and CFO Rana Kashyap discuss rebuilding the local-experiences marketplace with AI infrastructure, better…

GRPN $815M

Mispriced Assets Sep 11 5 clicks

SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $347M

Value Investors Club Jun 30 1 click

Annexon: Preserving Patient Function Is The Real Investment Opportunity

Annexon targets functional recovery in geographic atrophy and Guillain-Barré syndrome, with ARCHER II vision-endpoint data due in Q4 2026…

ANNX $781M

Equity Eagle Sep 27 2 clicks

Sofwave Medical: Lifting Skin While the Beauty Sector Sags

Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.

SOFWF $393M

Substack von Philipp Sep 11 1 click

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $642M

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 10 3 clicks

(Idea) GeoPark’s Venezuela Deal Creates More Upside—And A More Difficult Valuation

GeoPark’s Bare Block acquisition targets $1.2 billion of 2030 EBITDA, but 42.1 million to 47.6 million new shares and Gilinski control…

GPRK $678M

HFI Research Sep 10 2 clicks

Fundamentals Turn In Favor Of Farmland Partners

Farmland Partners trades at 70% of NAV, with farmland appreciation, commodity prices and crop insurance supporting earnings beyond AFFO.

FPI $501M

Dane Bowler Sep 8

ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation

ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…

LOGC $690M

Hidden Gems Investing Sep 8 5 clicks

Kodiak AI: The Stock Collapsed Just As The Business Started Working

Kodiak AI’s stock collapse coincides with a planned year-end long-haul driverless launch, while cash burn, customer concentration and…

KDK $336M

High Alpha Professor Sep 8 1 click

Build a Bear Workshop

Build-A-Bear Workshop, the toy retailer.

BBW $313M

Bearstone Sep 3

A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?

Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…

SMPL $874MBRBR $894M

The Value Road Sep 2 12 clicks

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Psyop Capital on X

PAA Research on X

Broken Moats on X

Broken Moats on X

mavix on X

marginofdanger on X

mavix on X

marginofdanger on X

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YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 42 of 199

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