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Thursday, October 1, 2026

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@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

On timber companies $RYN and $WY. If the long end keeps going up. 6-7% which I think is definitely possible. Then timber companies will get crushed. But my overall thesis remains and is happening in real time: energy-driven inflation, fiscal deterioration, failed treasury buybacks, the Fed losing the long end. Right now the market is repricing duration before it reprices scarcity. This gap can run for decades. Equities were destroyed in real terms through 1973 and 1974. But hard assets won the decade. I’m praying both of these timber companies keep going down. Land is my favorite asset to own. You can see it. You can touch it. You can hunt on it. You can fish on it. And you can grow productive timber on it. Huge swaths of land have massive optionality. Let’s hope Scott “I am the house” Bessent continues to lose the bond market. I want to see a bloodbath here.
@SowingAlphaSeed 1 click

Farmer on X

You look at $LQDA? Just received this letter. "Liquidia was on track to generate $1.4 billion in revenue in 2027. Half of the revenue so far has been from PAH and half from PH-ILD. Net margins are likely to be in the 50% range. If PH-ILD is removed, we assume $700 million in revenue and $350 million in cash flow. At a reasonable multiple, we would be looking at a stock value from that sales market between $44 and $55. If there is a 30% royalty on PH-ILD sales, we would have $350 million in cash flow from PAH and $245 million in cash flow from PH-ILD sales. At a reasonable multiple, we would be looking at a stock value from that sales market between $75 and $94." https://t.co/CatQzuyQ1C
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Qiagen $QGEN has a new CEO (Jonathan Pratt) per Sept. 1. Let's see if he can bring some action. The company also recently confirmed it continues to evaluate strategic alternatives, with Goldman Sachs involved. There have been reports of takeover interest for a long time, with past reports linking Qiagen to Thermo Fisher, bioMérieux, and Bio-Rad. Qiagen is an interesting target given its leadership in nucleic acid prep, strong consumables-driven revenue, and growth areas like TB testing and digital PCR. The portfolio would fit well with major industry consolidators.

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Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout…

AAON $6.8BKNF $2.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research

Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.9B
Value Don't Lie 3 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
FRMI · long

Fermi INC

Fermi Inc. is presented as a time-sensitive long special situation.

FRMI $2.6B
Value Investors Club

Churchill Downs: Doubling Down

Churchill Downs is selling regional casinos to focus on horse racing and historical racing machines, where Exacta software and racetrack…

CHDN $5.3B
Eagle Point Capital

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.7B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

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