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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TLRY: I picked because they have Montauk beer, a brand I am super familiar (lol losing braincells scuttlebutt) with because of where I live so it piqued my interest. Secular beer decline will not affect this brand, it is a premium brand and will stay so catering to the wealthiest people on the planet (Hamptons). GAAP losses and dilution, federal rescheduling of cannabis could be huge: By holding onto those 15 to 18 inactive asset pieces (MedMen Stores/Licenses) right now, Tilray owns a massive pipeline of U.S. cannabis real estate that costs them almost nothing to maintain today, but will command a massive premium the moment the federal government finalizes the Schedule III transition. CEO got no performance bonus in 26' bc missed targets. At Friday's $4.13 close, market cap is about $566M and current enterprise value is about $733M. global cannabis + beverage platform trading at ~12x FY26 adjusted EBITDA, with international cannabis +34%, Germany driving growth, FY26 revenue +11% and EBITDA +11%, 275MT annual cannabis capacity, and BrewDog acquired out of administration for ~£33M + subsequent U.S./Australia assets; 14.4% of float short.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTAM: Stan Druckenmiller and Chris Hohn long concrete. Titan America is a vertically integrated East Coast cement/building-materials platform with leading positions in Florida (~31%), Virginia/North Carolina (~30%) and Metro New York (~24%). Its moat is physical: scarce permitted cement capacity, quarries, marine terminals, rail, ready-mix and downstream distribution. The business generated $1.66B of revenue and $390M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, and 2025 ROCE was 19.5%. The major change in 2026 is Keystone. Titan closed the $310M acquisition in May, adding 990K tons of clinker capacity and >50 years of mineral reserves. Keystone contributed ~$20M of Q2 revenue; Titan is targeting ≥$30M of annual run-rate synergies by 2029. Mid-Atlantic Q2 revenue/EBITDA rose 27%/30%, partly driven by Keystone, while Florida EBITDA fell 19% because of Pennsuco maintenance and import-logistics disruptions. The construction backdrop is softer than the old table suggested: U.S. construction spending was down 3.8% YoY in July 2026, and ACA expects cement consumption to fall 2.5% in 2026 before turning positive in 2027. The bright spots are data centers and infrastructure: July 2026 AIA consensus calls for data-center construction growth of 33% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027, while nonresidential overall is -0.3% / +3.0%. At $13.85 on September 25, TTAM has ~$2.55B of market cap and ~$3.09B of EV against $393.7M of TTM adjusted EBITDA, or ~7.9x EV/EBITDA. A reference peer group is around ~12.4x. Your replacement-cost framework of ~$4.2B ex-logistics therefore equates to ~$1.1B above current EV; after net debt, roughly ~$3.7B of equity value versus ~$2.6B today. The key debate is no longer whether Keystone is cheap on capacity—it is whether Titan can actually turn that capacity into normalized EBITDA through utilization, pricing and network synergies.

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Uber: The Aggregator on Trial

Uber's $193 billion in gross bookings and $10 billion in free cash flow contrast with modest stock gains as autonomous vehicles and…

DASH $81B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $347M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

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