TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million refinancing, and Bob Chapek’s account of Disney succession.
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Idea Brunch on X
Idea Brunch with @Derek_K_Brown of Dardanelles Capital Tickers mentioned include $FLUT and $ELF https://t.co/RqbtxVhwEo
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
catechwilliams on X
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
catechwilliams on X
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
catechwilliams on X
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
Little Owl Research on X
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.5B
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 ALM $3.9BJXN $8.8B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 VNP $2.1B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2BCMCX $2.5B
- Lindsell Train Limited July 2026 RMVEY $3.2B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.1B
- Broyhill Asset Management second quarter 2026 MIDD $4.7BSHC $5.2B
- Artisan Partners Q2 2026 CIGI $4.7BCLBT $2.8B
Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is On
Vista Energy's Q2 2026 production rose 32% and revenue 89% as Vaca Muerta acquisitions expand its Argentine export platform and cash…
Alan Galecki 5 clicks
Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update
Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…
Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation
Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…
Roman Vitasek 4 clicks
A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t
ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…
Research Roundup Vol. LIII
Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Strategic Crossroads - Acquisition Or Dividend Bonanza Ahead
ZIM faces Israeli review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-per-share bid, with $2.46 billion cash and elevated transpacific rates supporting potential…
Melissa Tucker 
$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…
Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH
Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a…
Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead
Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…
Meta's Muse Could be Big Win for Innodata
Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale…
MBGL · long Mobility Global INC -spn
Mobility Global Inc. will become a standalone public company through S&P Global’s spin-off of its Mobility division.
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII
Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue…
Undercovered Dozen: Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure, Corning And More
Undercovered Dozen spotlights 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure and Corning.
The Undercovered Dozen 
Emeth Value Capital’s Andrew Carreon on Shift4 ($FOUR)
Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…
Quick Value #331 - Corteva / Vylor Spin-Off
Corteva will spin off its Pioneer seed business, Vylor, on October 1, leaving crop protection RemainCo that could trade at 6.5-8.5x 2026…
[CoStar] Homes are different
CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…
I Tested Three Cannibals Against Dillard’s. I Bought Two. (CROX, CNX, GPI)
Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes…
Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.
Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale…
Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)
Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…
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