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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

Honeywell Aerospace, newly spun off as HONA, fell 41% from post-listing highs after Q2 2026 as supply-chain bottlenecks delayed revenue catch-up despite long-lived aerospace aftermarket…

HONA $49B
D Invests 13 clicks

From X

@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
CNR · long

Core Natural Resources INC

Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…

CNR $4.4B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Adobe

Adobe’s bear case is that generative AI breaks new-user habit formation, leaving its professional base sticky but aging as growth slows and…

ADBE $92B
Bearstone

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $22B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $21B
Eagle Point Capital

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