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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

Honeywell Aerospace, newly spun off as HONA, fell 41% from post-listing highs after Q2 2026 as supply-chain bottlenecks delayed revenue catch-up despite long-lived aerospace aftermarket…

HONA $49B
D Invests 13 clicks

From X

@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
LWAY · long

Lifeway Foods INC

Lifeway Foods holds 95% market share in kefir, is growing 20% to 35%, and trades at 12 times projected 2027 earnings as its capex cycle…

LWAY $320M
Value Investors Club

U-Haul Bought at the Top

U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…

UHAL $12B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

PDD Supplemental

JD, Alibaba and Douyin are assessed for their competitive threat to PDD, with a specific investment stance on JD.

JD $35B
Bearstone

Stretch Marks

Strategy owns 847,363 Bitcoin and funded $13.7 billion of purchases this year with Stretch preferred stock, a variable-dividend security…

MSTR $61B
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