$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.
$APP just up'd its Share Repurchase authorization. Rare to see a positive 8K drop, on a Friday afternoon... was worried for a second😅 https://t.co/XKfTEFkf4d https://t.co/516mtR8Xnd
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue…
Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…
Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale…
Reddit’s subreddit-driven communities support targeted advertising, and its 0.3 PEG ratio makes RDDT undervalued, according to the upgrade…
Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…
Credo Technology was added at $170.54 after a 40% selloff, backed by its high-speed AECs and optical connectivity for AI data centers.
Copart’s $1.9 billion ACV Auctions acquisition targets renewed growth, with EPS accretion expected by fiscal 2028 as insurance…
GameStop's collectibles mix rose to 45% of sales as gross margin reached 44%, supporting a deep-value case built on cash and store…
Tempus AI’s Q2 oncology testing volumes rose 31%, while data and applications revenue grew 28% as its clinical data flywheel expands.
A2Gold’s first Taylor drill holes returned 20.96 g/t AuEq over 1.5m and 209.4 g/t silver over 10.7m, alongside 141.10 g/t gold at…
INVH · long Invitation Homes owns more than 85,000 homes valued at $43 to $48 per share, versus a roughly $30 share price, with occupancy above 96%.
Coherent’s CPO/NPO laser misses 1 MHz effective-linewidth requirements, Irrational Analysis argues.
Corteva will spin off its Pioneer seed business, Vylor, on October 1, leaving crop protection RemainCo that could trade at 6.5-8.5x 2026…
CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…
Dick’s Sporting Goods’ $2.4 billion Foot Locker acquisition nearly quadruples its store count and adds international exposure, risking a…
Latticework’s weekly briefing spotlights discounted European assets including Barco, Bolloré, Brookfield and D’Ieteren, with catalysts…
Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes…
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
Brookfield Corporation, down 20% YTD, manages $1.27 trillion across asset management, insurance and operating businesses as rates, debt and…
Southwest Airlines targets more than $2 billion of 2026 EBIT from assigned seating, extra legroom and bag fees despite higher fuel costs…
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