Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DCGO NYC Controller revokes Mayor Adams' authority to grant emergency order contracts (backdoor, no-bid). The order specifically focuses on DCGO's lucrative "asylum seeker services." NYC = 50% of DCGO revenue. https://t.co/7NUJ0i28Ry
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $454MALM $4B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $78B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6BSUSRF $262M
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 NXT $12B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $501M8011 $231M
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1.1BVNP $1.9B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.5B
Southwest Airlines: Buy The Transformation Despite The Oil Shock
Southwest Airlines targets more than $2 billion of 2026 EBIT from assigned seating, extra legroom and bag fees despite higher fuel costs…
Dhierin Bechai 2 clicks
Pacific Health Care Organization - OTC:PFHO
Pacific Health Care trades below its more than $1 per-share net cash despite profitable workers’ compensation claims services, California…
Thoughts on GFL’s Take Private - Is Dovigi Indifferent?
GFL’s take-private process has drawn KKR, Blackstone, Brookfield and IFM, while CEO Patrick Dovigi signals he will accept only the right…
Brookfield of Dreams
Brookfield is recasting itself from an industrial owner into a $1.3 trillion asset manager and insurer, betting AI infrastructure can…
Karman: Why I'm Upgrading To Buy After A 68% Drop
Karman Holdings (KRMN) is upgraded after a 68% drop, with 24% organic growth, a $1.3 billion backlog and higher 2026 guidance offset by…
Dhierin Bechai 1 click
Why Dario Amodei and Sam Altman Are Faking the AI Doomsday Crisis | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues AI extinction warnings from Dario Amodei and Sam Altman seek regulation that creates pricing moats.
$NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued Interest
Nintendo's Switch 2 attach rate, flat Switch Online accounts and rising memory costs fuel a bear case, while Spotify and Netflix margins…
Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents
DoorDash's grocery push targets a shift from weekly stock-up trips to frequent online fill-in orders, though smaller baskets complicate…
QNT: The 100× Question
Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and…
Generac: Amazon Gives The Story More Credibility
Generac’s $2.4 billion Amazon generator agreement for 2027-28 anchors its data-center growth thesis, with 30% projected revenue growth in…
Fernanda Galvez Jalil 
CPT · long Camden Property Trust
Camden Property Trust owns multifamily properties across the U.S. Southeast and Southwest.
Deep Dive: Grab Holdings ($GRAB)
Grab generates 53% of revenue from delivery, 36% from mobility and 10% from financial services, using its Southeast Asian marketplace to…
DeFi Development: The Clarity Act Failure Tests The Solana Treasury Thesis
DeFi Development’s Solana treasury strategy faces dilution, preferred dividends and tight liquidity after a 50% rally, with $4.3 million of…
Dorine Cherop 
Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)
Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…
This Week in Special Situations: Cooper Companies, Sturm Ruger, Grab Holdings, Boston Omaha
Special-situations survey flags Cooper’s $3 billion buyback, Grab’s $900 million repurchase, and Beretta’s $44.80 partial tender for Sturm…
House of Weichai
Weichai Power built a global engine group through Baudouin and a 46% stake in PSIX, positioning both for large-bore generator demand from…
Pioneer Bancorp Has One Too Many Red Flags
Pioneer Bancorp’s acquisitions lifted loans 13.6% and Q2 net interest margin to 4.30%, but expenses, weaker profitability ratios and a…
Crimson And Gold Research 
Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up
STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture,…
Diamond Estates: Research Note
Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits plans to expand grocery and export sales, invest in six brands, and improve winery operations through FY29.
Progyny: Best-In-Class And Likely To Exceed Analyst Estimates In 2027
Progyny's Q2 revenue rose 11% excluding Amazon, with margin expansion and nearly 100% EPS growth guidance for 2026 supporting…
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- 1851 Capital
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Sectors
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