Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed valuation in question.
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed valuation in question.
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
1/ So first things first, $HHH missed on top and bottom line. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. Value was created for shareholders and I'll briefly explain why...
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
@DeepDuDiligence Doing some DD on $TPET at the moment, have they given any guidance on how many wells they expect to start producing this year? Or what the BOPD could be?
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…
Independence Realty Trust is buying Centerspace in stock to create an $8.1 billion apartment REIT, targeting 5% 2027 Core FFO per-share…
NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…
Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…
NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…
Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.
Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…
Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…
BridgeBio Pharma raised Attruby peak-sales guidance as kidney-benefit data, fewer hospital days and competitor setbacks strengthen its…
TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…
Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…
Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.
Intercontinental Exchange's valuation case rests on 5% Q2 revenue growth, a 61% adjusted margin and $100 million of MarketAxess synergies.
Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…
PESI · long Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI) is presented as a long investment idea.
Farmland Partners trades at 70% of NAV, with farmland appreciation, commodity prices and crop insurance supporting earnings beyond AFFO.
ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…
Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…
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