Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed valuation in question.
Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed valuation in question.
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
@marginofdanger @BillAckman Additionally, $HHH as a pure play MPC is much more valuable than the sum of its parts. Though the market doesn't understand it well at the moment it will likely come to appreciate it more as it grows and produces substantial FCF. Patience is key here.
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
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Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.
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Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.
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Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.
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Kodiak AI’s stock collapse coincides with a planned year-end long-haul driverless launch, while cash burn, customer concentration and…
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…
Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…
Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…
Tecnoglass could recover tariff- and FX-hit margins as U.S. blanket tariffs on Colombian goods lift.
Scholar Rock’s apitegromab could become the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy by September 2026, but manufacturing setbacks and a…
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