A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Thursday, September 3, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
Little Owl Research on X
@marginofdanger @BillAckman Additionally, $HHH as a pure play MPC is much more valuable than the sum of its parts. Though the market doesn't understand it well at the moment it will likely come to appreciate it more as it grows and produces substantial FCF. Patience is key here.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6BSUSRF $262M
- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $910M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $90MSTOR-B $1.7B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 BLBD $1.9BMMS $2.9B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.2BDGXX $430M
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.5BBUR $794M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7B
EVC Update
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital
Limbach's EBITDA fell 30% as organic revenue declined, but 1 Main Capital calls the weakness temporary and views CYMCOR as its first…
MDA Space: Houston, We Have a New Position
MDA Space is added to the Aurelion Index after hiring engineers, signing large contracts and expanding facilities; the thesis cites…
GoPro sold itself at 9:20 AM to get ahead of a meme stock
GoPro rushed out its Starman Optical merger after Markiplier-driven buying sent GPRO up roughly 90% premarket, offering shareholders $1.14…
Cleveland-Cliffs: 2027 Could Be A Very Big Year
Cleveland-Cliffs' 2027 upside depends on contract resets and Stelco earnings, while management directs free cash flow to deleveraging…
The Bullionaire 1 click
[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice
Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…
Here's Why You Should Buy Genius Sports Despite Rising Leverage
Genius Sports guided for $1.005–$1.025 billion of revenue and $285–$295 million of adjusted EBITDA despite higher leverage from the Legend…
Mayank Marwah 5 clicks
Ultragenyx ($RARE): A Catalyst-Driven Thesis With Asymmetric Upside
Ultragenyx targets $730-760 million of 2026 revenue after GENGLYCOS approval, with UX111’s FDA decision and GTX-102 Phase 3 data due in…
FTRE 2026-08-30 Fortrea Holdings: The Turnaround Is Showing Up In Earnings Before Revenue
Fortrea’s adjusted EBITDA rose 24% in H1 as cost cuts outpaced a 3.4% revenue decline, while new business awards increased 19%.
Manimala Misra 2 clicks
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
TOYO · short Toyo CO LTD
TOYO CO LTD is the target of a short thesis.
Fastly: Record Q2 Confirms The Platform Inflection
Fastly's Q2 revenue rose 23%, while Security and Compute reached a $200 million run rate and drove record profitability.
Miletus Research 
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Miami International Holdings (MIAX)
Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities
US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…
NRIX 2026-08-24 Nurix Therapeutics: Roche Has Changed The Economics Of The Bull Case
Nurix Therapeutics gained $700 million upfront from Roche, a 50% U.S. profit share and Roche-funded global bexobrutideg development,…
Equity Eagle 3 clicks
Planet Fitness: The $10 Gym That Grew Into a Franchise Machine
Planet Fitness runs 2,930 clubs and 21.5 million memberships through an asset-light franchise model funded by $15 monthly dues, royalties…
SEZL 2026-08-23 Sezzle: The Numbers Don't Support The Selloff
Sezzle fell 20% after Q2 despite a revenue and EPS beat and higher guidance, as marketing spending and seasonality drove a sequential…
Daniel James 3 clicks
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
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