A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Just announced a substantial new project win. Estimated to be $25M in revenue to Daktronics. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs are among those exploring potential upgrades for next season, all of which are exisiting customers. https://t.co/dcn6TcQNr4
catechwilliams on X
$DCGO NYC Controller revokes Mayor Adams' authority to grant emergency order contracts (backdoor, no-bid). The order specifically focuses on DCGO's lucrative "asylum seeker services." NYC = 50% of DCGO revenue. https://t.co/7NUJ0i28Ry
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DKNG Basically just said at the Craig Hallum Conference they are going to miss Q4 guidance. CEO: "literally had the worst stretch of the year, the last few weeks...sometimes that happens where you issue your guidance...So we'll see."
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Perhaps the most attractive long I’ve seen in years. Dominant \position in a category growing >20%. Major business overhaul taking hold after years of underperformance. Stock trades at 7x EPS/ 13% FCF yield due to low awareness of these structural improvements (see below)..
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $910M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $90MEVGGF $16B
- Royce Investment Partners year-to-date period ended 6/30/26 BLBD $1.9BMMS $2.8B
- Protean Funds June 2026 IDDWF $9.3BSKSBF $12B
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.2BDGXX $430M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 MELI $89BSE $62B
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $84BIX $42B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $43BIMO $59B
An ATM that starts to spit out cash
Andrada Mining’s Uis ore sorter targets higher tin grades and lower unit costs after FY26 operating cash flow reached £4.7 million, but…
EVC Update
EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.
$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital
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GoPro sold itself at 9:20 AM to get ahead of a meme stock
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Cleveland-Cliffs: 2027 Could Be A Very Big Year
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The Bullionaire 1 click
[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice
Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…
Here's Why You Should Buy Genius Sports Despite Rising Leverage
Genius Sports guided for $1.005–$1.025 billion of revenue and $285–$295 million of adjusted EBITDA despite higher leverage from the Legend…
Mayank Marwah 5 clicks
Emerge Commerce ($ECOM.V) FINS Review
Emerge Commerce's $44 million COVID-era acquisitions produced losses and impairments, while modestly improved Q2 liquidity leaves its…
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
BE 2026-08-29 Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break
Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…
Valuation Rewind 2 clicks
YSWY · long Yesway INC
Yesway is pitched as a high-quality convenience-store operator with growth runway, trading near 8.5 times EBITDA and targeting a…
Six Flags And United Parks: Two Different Answers To The Same Demand Problem
Six Flags’ attendance rose 4% while comparable crowd intensity was nearly flat, and both it and United Parks grew deferred revenue about 2%…
Sanjay Swamy 1 click
NTG Clarity Networks ($NCI.V) FINS Review
NTG Clarity’s $18.6M of Q2 service revenue sat in contract assets, while $4.6M cash burn cut cash to $2.85M and raises liquidity concerns.
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
CMCSA 2026-08-28 After A Decade Of Underperformance, Comcast Is Finally Ready To Rebound
Comcast's mobile growth, Verizon roaming agreement, NBCUniversal content and theme parks are positioned to offset broadband competition…
Max Greve 1 click
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
STNE 2026-08-25 StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.
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