Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Back to today 
From X
marginofdanger on X
@leevalueroach $BWEL
Clark Square Capital on X
Interesting development at $GRVY https://t.co/xvjalTHgN7
SG on X
On the daily chart, $SB #sugar looks like it ran too far too fast. Zoom out though and you get a better picture of exactly how far the commodity can move in an uptrend. Staying long. https://t.co/31XQLMRcCZ
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
SG on X
$MNTN long here. Thanks to @hedgeye for sharing this presentation and deck. https://t.co/fXrKWKpryo
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $946MVVVNF $1.8B
- Protean Funds July 2026 STOR-B $1.7BTRUE-B $615M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 DGXX $415MDIG $477M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 MIPS $1B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 AORT $1.2BCENX $3.9B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 CNX $4.9BFBIN $4.8B
TPC 2026-08-27 Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…
The Curious Analyst 
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
Redfern Research 
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
GPK · long Graphic Packaging Holding CO
Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…
AnaptysBio (ANAB)
AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.
A Hardware Multiple on a Software Powerhouse
A software powerhouse posts a record quarter while trading at a 52-week low, raising a valuation disconnect between its business model and…
eDreams: Disproving the Bears and Regaining Credibility
EDreams cut FY26 Prime-member guidance to 600,000 after Ryanair blocks, while its subscription model lifted Prime to 7.25 million members…
Vidrala
Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.
ROAS to Riches
Entravision’s Smadex AdTech segment grew Q1 2026 revenue 204% and generated over $34 million of EBIT, becoming 78% of sales and the core…
[RDVT] Red Violet and the Identity Resolution Mafia
Red Violet CEO Derek Dubner and CSO Ole Poulsen came from Hank Asher’s Seisint, a Florida identity-resolution data-mining firm.
Forgive me Father, I have Sabled.
Sable Offshore restarted Santa Ynez oil flows under a Defense Production Act order, targeting 50,000 barrels daily and a path to 60,000…
AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics
AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.
Hallador Pt. 2 — "Massive" Data Center Incoming in Sullivan, IN? ($HNRG)
Hallador’s 1 GW Merom plant could supply a proposed 1,000-acre Sullivan County data center, with local filings and Stantec references tying…
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