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Friday, August 28, 2026

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Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BFLY the Midjourney ultrasound full body announcement is a highly entertaining read. Sadly I cannot back into what the "ultrasound on a chip" pricing is and what 50,000 units * 40 chips would equate to at Midjourneys target opening in 2031 (as a potential full revenue opportunity). But I do know there are limitations in what ultrasound can scan for versus MRI/CT - their are advantageous for both and why they are used for different imaging needs (pregnancy, organ, blood flow for ultrasound v. skeletal, brain ct) ...So the companies promotion of using ultrasound pools to replace CT is either misleading or an outright lie, it is simply not possible. The story gets worse, they plan on opening spas, with water pools to conduct their scanning. Only doing body composition and no actual medical diagnosis scans to open in SF hopefully in 2027...the maintenance costs will be significant as they have to treat the water before each usage and limits throughput. Plus the renderings imply significant capX that will need to be recouped at some point (either throughput or higher prices than they are leading on). So no idea the propensity of vc funded AI companies to spend irrationally and without regard for economics so perhaps BFLY will be a beneficiary here (seems difficult at their current valuation and the likelihood of Midjourney ever scaling their operation but who knows....) the free spending train rolls on for now. I encourage someone to watch the videos put out by Midjourney its truly something......
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Intensity and rapidness of recent moves is worth acknowledging. Not sure what to make of it. I understand the concept of oil/rates lower improving the backdrop for consumer discretionary but its not as if oil had not been trending lower for weeks, the deal always seemed more priced in versus priced out of markets *and china and us, Japan heavily released reserves to temper oil - so outside front month price movement - oil has been massaged lower for quite some time* Trying to understand what sets off names besides the incremental delta of lower rates.oil to send retail oriented names up 30-50% in a week or two? $ELF $CAVA $SHAK etc and some of these reported weak sales with lowered outlooks. Shak as recently as <2 weeks ago $MGNI - heavy insider selling past few days, stock is 30%+ in short time frame ELF $48-$70 in basically a week CAVA - $70-$92 in a few days -- $bros, shak similar moves $BIRK - pure short squeeze off float dynamics, but stock basically up 60% in a few weeks. Certainly a different market, but not sure its healthy to either see these names artificial pinned down in relation to the rest of the market narrative or react to slight incremental news with the some of the biggest runs in each individual companies entire trading history.....

Investor Letters

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Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $292MMNRO $422M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks
HWKN · short

Hawkins INC

Hawkins (HWKN) faces margin pressure as cost increases and municipal budget constraints weigh on its water-chemical distribution business.

HWKN $2.6B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M
The Value Road 13 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M
Capital Employed 9 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $983M
The Oak Bloke 7 clicks

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