Monday, August 24, 2026

The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb

Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.

STRR $37MHHS $35M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 24 8 clicks

Aug 20 ELALF $3.2B

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

Yet Another Value Podcast 12 clicks

Aug 20 CCC $3.9B

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

scuttleblurb 17 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap Aug 24 4 clicks

BDC on X

$SOXX could go down 20% from here and still be up over 30% YTD

@orrdavid Aug 23 4 clicks

David Orr on X

@grok @jasondebolt Put that another way, you could have known Burry or Einhorn didn't have a real track record back in the mid 2000s, if you'd just realized they were betting huge on the value factor. Same thing with $ARKK through 2021.

@orrdavid Aug 23 4 clicks

David Orr on X

A rhetorical thought experiment: Someone was all in $GME or $AMC stock on Jan 1st, 2021. They sold all of their stock right near the top. That's +1,600% for $GME and +2,500% for $AMC. They simply did nothing for the next 5 years. $GME guy still has a 65% CAGR, $AMC guy an 80% CAGR. These skilled investors?

@irbezek Aug 22 5 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@davey_juice @taobanker I own both. $NU seems inevitable. $INTR more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets rerated.

@irbezek Aug 22 6 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@taobanker $INTR at 1.2x book 5.5x '27 earnings with a 16% ROE growing at 20% a year probably qualifies. But yes, $BLX is incredible and I still kick myself for selling most of my position at $25 after buying at $15. Grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory there.

@BlueDuckCap Aug 21 4 clicks

BDC on X

@be4_the_h3rd @JasperRidley $xgn just getting started imo

@irbezek Aug 21 5 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@taobanker Good chance this will be another 14% higher at some point between now and Dec. Things in motion stay in motion... $COLO https://t.co/CjrbroM2R3

@BlueDuckCap Aug 21 2 clicks

BDC on X

Reviewing some expert transcripts. On $XGN this is worth flagging. The Rheumatologist being interviewed confirms the bull thesis. Says he uses AVISE (XGN) for his panels bc generic tests don't work well in autoimmune, and AVISE more accurate. Flat out says that the one autoimmune marker XGN doesn't offer is for Myositis, where he uses another lab. Guess what $XGN is offering in 2027?

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

SA 2026-08-20

Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside

Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…

SA $3.3B

Redfern Research Aug 20

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18 13 clicks

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

SERV $370M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17 4 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $292MMNRO $383M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17 9 clicks

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.8B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

KSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M

The Value Road Aug 11 13 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2BTWO $1.3B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $902M

Capital Employed Aug 10 9 clicks

SLS · short

Sellas Life Sciences Group I

SELLAS Life Sciences Group faces a short case arguing that even a strong clinical outcome does not support its current valuation.

SLS $2.3B

Value Investors Club May 25

The Biggest Bull Signal On Entravision

Entravision’s lost Meta relationship reset its business model, setting up a bullish case for the company’s recovery.

EVC $727M

The Value Road Jun 26 5 clicks

Char Technologies ($YES.V) FINS Review

Char Technologies’ Q2 brought $700,000 revenue and a $1.36 million net loss, while weak liquidity, related-party loans and dilution raise…

CTRNF $40M

Wolf's Substack Jun 25

On the Horizon

A tiny defense supplier trades at roughly 6.5x estimated normalized EBIT as military-program volumes rise and a strategic review considers…

AIRI $12M

The Mikro Kap Jun 24 1 click

The Arithmetic: How a $9 Spanish-Language Broadcaster Becomes a $100 AdTech Stock

Entravision’s path from a $9 Spanish-language broadcaster to a $100 adtech stock rests on an adtech-driven valuation model.

EVC $727M

The Value Road Jun 15 4 clicks

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.6B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Jun 15 2 clicks

A Hardware Multiple on a Software Powerhouse

A software powerhouse posts a record quarter while trading at a 52-week low, raising a valuation disconnect between its business model and…

CALX $2.2B

The Value Road Jun 12 5 clicks

Braemar Hotels & Resorts: Internalizing Management

Braemar Hotels & Resorts is internalizing its management.

BHR $124M

Clark Street Value Jun 12 6 clicks

PUDO Inc. ($PDO.C) FINS Review

PUDO’s revenue rose 35% to $5.6 million, but losses quadrupled as administrative costs outpaced growth; $242,000 of cash and ongoing burn…

PDPTF $5.4M

Wolf's Substack Jun 10

ADF Group Inc. ($DRX.TO) FINS Review

ADF Group’s Q1 FY2026 revenue rose 78% to $99.3 million and net income 37%, aided by the LAR acquisition despite steel and aluminum tariff…

ADFJF $274M

Wolf's Substack Jun 9 1 click

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