$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
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From X
catechwilliams on X
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
catechwilliams on X
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT. Over the last 3 weeks have won several large upgrades—Colorado, UVa football stadiums. Each $15M projects to boost backlog and revenue >10% in the next quarter, further solidifying dominant market position. https://t.co/JFou9jCYxr
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Delta just significantly expanded its Digital ID program. This service is free, more efficient than Clear and now available in Clear's core markets. Other majors will have to follow in order to compete on service. Seems like this could kill $YOU in pretty short order. https://t.co/tgfebZZCWK
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
catechwilliams on X
$OXM Very strong holiday selling season based on credit card data & other trackers for core Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands w very minimal promotion or discounts vs modest consensus growth expectations. Stock at 9x EPS, will be providing prelim numbers at ICR in 2 weeks.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- White Falcon Capital Management Q2 2026 EPAM $5.8BTOI $5.3B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q2 2026 SHC $5.2BCALY $2.6B
- Cedar Creek Partners Q2 ‘26 ENDI $132MEXCE $1.3B
- LVS Advisory first half of 2026 VISN $1.5B
- Polaris Capital Management SECOND QUARTER 2026 CYTK $9.4BLNTH $6.5B
- Palm Harbour Capital second quarter ALHG $2B082920 $946M
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%
Pernas Research names Capstone Energy and Stabilis Solutions as AI data-center power beneficiaries, alongside Tenable, Upwork, Wise and…
My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
Butler National Corporation is the subject of a stock pitch presented at the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference.
DEC-laration of independence
Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…
Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap
Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…
Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…
A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents
Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…
[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND
Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…
HRBR · long Harbor Diversified INC
Harbor Diversified trades at about $0.65 per $1.00 of cash, with at least $150 million in cash as its sole asset.
Floor & Decor 2Q'26: Tentative Green Shoots
Floor & Decor held 2026 guidance after a 2Q beat, with comps improving through June; tariff refunds lifted margins and may fund pricing…
Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)
Vistance Networks plans a large post-Ruckus-sale dividend, leaving Aurora Networks valued below 4x guided EBITDA after $1.88 billion of…
[OTCM] Listings for the rest of us
OTC Markets gives smaller, distressed, and lightly disclosed companies a trading venue outside NYSE and Nasdaq, with lower listing barriers…
This Stock Just Got Cheaper on Better Numbers
A debt-free American manufacturer now trades at roughly 7x annualized Q2 EBITDA, with $7.35 per share in net cash and a tender floor 18.5%…
Entravision: Another Whale Has Emerged
Entravision’s Q1 filings contain a new footnote disclosure pointing to a potential second large advertiser beyond its Hong Kong customer,…
Seer
Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.
Hidden in Plane Sight
An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…
Gatekeeper Systems ($GSI.V) FINS Review
Gatekeeper Systems’ revenue rebound is overshadowed by $19.3 million in nine-month operating cash burn, swelling inventory and overdue…
RI(N)sing higher
RIN prices near all-time highs reflect tighter renewable-fuel mandates, a shrinking credit bank, and biodiesel production shortfalls.
Publications we follow
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Newsletters 91
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- Absurdly Cheap Stocks
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- AmsterdamStocks
- Aurelion Research
- Base Hit Investing
- Bearhold Research
- Bearstone
- Behind the Balance Sheet
- Best Anchor Stocks
- Bilbel's Substack
- Bison Insights
- Brevarthan Research
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Byron Street Research
- Calvin Blissett
- Cannibal Stocks
- Capital Employed
- Capitalist Letters
- Cassandra Unchained
- Citrini Research
- Cluseau Research
- D Invests
- Daniel Romero
- Deep Value Insights
- Doomberg
- Eagle Point Capital
- Easy Value
- Exploring with Alluvial Capital
- Fabricated Knowledge
- First Strike Research
- Flyover Stocks
- Global Outperformers
- Guardian Research
- Hated Moats
- Healthy Stock Picks
- HFI Research
- Hidden Gems Investing
- Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter
- Ian’s Insider Corner
- Iggy on Investing Newsletter
- Inglenook Growth
- Invariant
- Investing 501
- Irrational Analysis
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Kairos Research
- Kakashii's Materials
- Key Context by Tae Kim
- Latticework by MOI Global
- Lewistown Capital
- Maius Partners
- MBI Deep Dives
- Mispriced Assets
- Modern Value Investing
- Monte Independent Investment Research
- Multibagger Monitor
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Net Interest
- Nongaap Investing
- Nugget Capital Partner's Substack
- Obscure Stocks
- Open Insights
- PETITION
- Phynvesting
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- Rebound Capital
- Rod’s Ruminations
- ROE The Boat
- scuttleblurb
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- SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets
- Sleep Well Investments
- smallvalue.
- Speedwell Memos
- Stock Thoughts
- Substack von Philipp
- Sunday's Idea Brunch
- Sylence Capital
- The Curious Compounder
- The Mikro Kap
- The Oak Bloke
- The Value Road
- Treasure Hunting
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- TSOH Investment Research
- Underlying Value
- Value Don't Lie
- XIX Value
- Yet Another Value Blog
Blogs 12
Seeking Alpha 30 of 166
Andres Veurink
Bay Area Ideas
Capital Connoisseur
Dhierin Bechai
Equity Eagle
Eudaemon Research
Henrik Alex
High Alpha Professor
Investor Overview
IWA Research
Jaden Mealy
LL Insights
Marc Gerstein
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
Miletus Research
Myriam Alvarez
Petri Dish Reports
Philip Wang
Prakhar Agarwal, CFA
PV Research
Robert J. Lake
Sam Mancini
Sharon McArd
SiliconBytes Insights
Simple Investment Ideas
Steven Fiorillo
The Bullionaire
The Curious Analyst
The Undercovered Dozen
Value Capital Research
X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
⚽️📡
💥PETITION💥
A Capital
AltayCap
Bank Reg Blog
Barbarian Capital
BDC
Bill Ackman
Broken Moats
BuccoCapital Bloke
catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
Cluseau Investments
Colin King
Connor Haley
Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
Devin LaSarre
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maius
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
Odd Diligence
Odd Lot Arbitrageur
PAA Research
Pernas Research
Porter Collins
Prepared Remarks
Psyop Capital
Raging Capital Ventures
Red Dog Capital
RiverRoadPartners
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
SG
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
Todd Wenning
ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
- Asset Value Investors Ltd
- Baron Funds
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Biglari Holdings
- Bireme Capital
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Broyhill Asset Management
- Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management
- Cedar Creek Partners
- Choice Equities
- Confluence Investment Management
- CrossingBridge Advisors
- Crossroads Capital, LLC
- Distillate Capital
- Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
- Donville Kent Asset Management Inc.
- FPA Crescent Fund
- First Eagle Investments
- Forager Funds Management
- Fred Alger Management, LLC
- Giverny Capital
- Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
- Greenhaven Road Capital
- GreensKeeper Asset Management
- Grey Owl Capital Management
- Halvio Capital
- Hayden Capital
- Heartland Advisors
- Hoisington Investment Management
- Horizon Kinetics
- Intrepid Capital
- Invenomic Capital Management
- Janus Henderson Investors
- Kaydan Wealth Management
- Kernow Asset Management
- LVS Advisory
- Laughing Water Capital
- Lindsell Train Limited
- Macro Ops
- Maran Capital Management
- Markel Group
- Massif Capital
- McIntyre Partnerships
- Merion Road Capital
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory
- Oakmark Funds
- Palm Harbour Capital
- Palm Valley Capital
- Patient Capital Management
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V.
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
- Pershing Square Holdings
- Polaris Capital Management
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities
- Polen Capital U.S. Opportunistic High Yield
- Praetorian Capital
- Protean Funds
- RGA Investment Advisors
- Rowan Street Capital
- Royce Investment Partners
- Sequoia Fund
- Southeastern Asset Management
- Third Avenue Management
- Tweedy, Browne
- Upslope Capital Management
- Vulcan Value Partners
- Wedgewood Partners
- Weitz Investment Management
- White Falcon Capital Management
Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
