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Tuesday, October 6, 2026

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Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXX

Golar LNG’s fourth FLNG vessel targets 3.5MTPA capacity and a 2029 delivery, supporting projected adjusted EBITDA above $1 billion in fiscal 2029.

GLNG $4.9B
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From X

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Fajasy on X

Crean Hill cost Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) US$11.3M in November 2022, and a 2024 preliminary study put the mine’s after-tax NPV at US$137.0M. If R2, the high-grade zone Magna found at its Levack mine, is Magna’s copper and precious metals upside, Crean Hill is its biggest nickel exposure. Crean Hill’s 2024 PEA (preliminary economic assessment) outlined a 13-year, 2,200 tonnes/day underground mine that sells its ore to a third-party mill: → Resource: 18.4Mt indicated at 1.01% nickel, 0.87% copper, and 2.47g/t platinum, palladium, and gold. → Capital: US$34.2M for an advanced exploration phase (early underground work and bulk mining before full production) that earns US$11.6M of revenue, then US$19.6M before commercial production. → Economics: After-tax NPV (at an 8% discount rate) of US$137.0M and a 129% IRR, at $8.50/lb nickel, $4.00/lb copper, $900/oz platinum, $1,000/oz palladium, and $2,150/oz gold. Weighting each metal’s price change by its share of PEA revenue, I estimate Crean Hill’s revenue would be ~32% higher at Q2 2026 prices, even though nickel, 51% of PEA revenue, is the only metal below its PEA price. CEO Jason Jessup says the pre-feasibility study (PFS), due in the first half of October, will use “more realistic consensus metal prices for 2026” and update the capital costs. He expects the PFS to come in “generally in line” with the PEA, with “some additional costs.” Jessup also said in July that Crean Hill’s capital is “not going to be anywhere near $140 million.” Unlike McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine, Crean Hill carries no precious metals stream. To fund the restarts, Magna now has ~US$124M of cash, most of it from Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group that bought 19.9% of the company in August.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Alpayana, a private Peruvian mining group, asked for 19.9% of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) when management was “thinking something probably below 9.9,” per CEO Jason Jessup. On August 28, 2026, Alpayana, chaired by Alejandro Gubbins, bought 62,356,682 shares at CAD$2.25/share for US$99M. The US$99M more than quadrupled Magna’s cash at the time. Alpayana runs six underground mines in Peru and Mexico, most of them bought from other miners, including the Los Quenuales mines from Glencore $GLNCY in December 2022 and Sierra Metals, a copper-zinc miner, for ~US$176M in 2025. While it holds at least 10%, Alpayana can join future equity raises and top up after dilution, and it gets one board nominee or an observer. Jessup says Magna’s pre-deal plan already funded Levack, its flagship restart project, from cash and the cash flow of McCreedy West, its producing mine. So the US$99M mainly spares Magna from “delaying the startup construction at Crean Hill,” its permitted nickel mine, “by 1 or 2 years,” and gives it “a bit of a war chest” for acquisitions in Sudbury, Ontario, where its mines are. He also says Magna “could have five mines in production in 5 years and not have to ever do another financing again.” Neither restart study is out yet (both are due in the first half of October), so the claim rests on capital budgets investors haven’t seen. After the deal, Alpayana holds 19.9%, institutions 47.4%, retail investors 26.9%, and management and directors 5.8%. The institutional stake includes the 16.0% held by Dundee Corporation $DDEJF, a Toronto investment company.

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Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $634M
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