Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXX

Golar LNG’s fourth FLNG vessel targets 3.5MTPA capacity and a 2029 delivery, supporting projected adjusted EBITDA above $1 billion in fiscal 2029.

GLNG $4.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 6 1 click

Oct 6 GPI $2.8B

Group 1 Automotive (GPI): The CEO Takes a Driving Test

Cannibal Stocks 3 clicks

Oct 5 POOL $5.8B

Portfolio Update September 2026

D Invests 1 click

From X

@BarbarianCap Oct 6 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$LW Lamb Weston Says Cost-Saving Efforts Are Paying Off https://t.co/ZfdGZtyiqi

@leevalueroach Oct 6

Lee Roach on X

Geo Group $GEO down 8% on a massive facility sale seems kind of crazy.

@pennycheck Oct 6

⚽️📡 on X

New $BFLY BCI customer announced today https://t.co/OENwMSIz0I

@ACapitalLP Oct 6 2 clicks

A Capital on X

Wondering if $MIAX is a perception vs. reality trade? Perception: Kalshi single-stock perps will cannibalize options and structurally impair $MIAX. Reality: perps are initially limited to mega-cap, highly liquid names, there’s no evidence of cannibalization yet, options volumes remain strong, and $MIAX can ultimately participate in perps itself… 🤷‍♂️

@stockgutter Oct 6

SG on X

$FRVO price drops from ~$31 on Jun 26 to ~$13.50, and now they publish a short report? https://t.co/57Dy0iV2lE

@BrokenMoats Oct 6

Broken Moats on X

Secondaries more likely with the reversal in bio discovery names this morning not less, they are coming --- almost all need money to fund their cash burning businesses $DNA $TXG $TWST $GRAL you are their liquidity if you want to fund them at 20-30x sales

@negligible_cap Oct 6

Negligible Capital on X

Why has $SPHR been smoked lately? Wizard of Oz flop? Is it cheap now? Name is down 40% from its highs in August https://t.co/0dLnpRxXTl

@StableBread Oct 5

Fajasy on X

Makes sense when $UUUU revenue is still all uranium, Q2's $25.1M came from that segment. Tho the rare earth product is already proven, ~1.2t of their NdPr oxide became ~3.0t of magnets at South Korea's largest EV drive-motor core maker and passed every qualification benchmark. https://t.co/IWyLWnuRGS

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

INTR $3.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8%…

ARLP $3.2B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 5 4 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

MRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

IRDM $5B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

Research & Analysis | AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): MRO Holdings Reshapes the Margin Profile

AAR’s $1.8 billion acquisition of a 65% stake in MRO Holdings adds widebody aircraft maintenance and targets a 19% to 20% EBITDA margin by…

AIR $4B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

The Trade Desk's Q2 revenue grew 3% to $715 million as Q3 guidance called for a year-over-year decline; TTD has fallen over 90% from its…

TTD $5.8B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2 1 click

Belden Inc.: The Ruckus Debt Looks Scarier Than The Math

Belden targets net leverage of 2.9x by 2027 from 3.9x, using RUCKUS's 65%+ gross margins and free cash flow to reduce debt.

BDC $4.3B

Lee Bailey Oct 2

Crocs: Double-Digit Buyback Yield (Ticker: CROX)

Crocs has $2 billion of buyback authorization, more than a third of its market cap, as North American sales stabilize and HeyDude drags on…

CROX $5.5B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 2 4 clicks

Mattel: M&A Buzz And A CEO Change Create Substantial Uncertainty

Mattel rose 19% on takeover speculation, but a potential $20-per-share bid, margin pressure and CEO transition leave its standalone…

MAT $4.8B

Seeking Profits Oct 1

OSW · short

Onespaworld Holdings LTD

OneSpaWorld Holdings, the dominant outsourced cruise-ship spa operator across more than 200 vessels, is the subject of a short thesis.

OSW $2.4B

Value Investors Club Jun 8

ZhongAn Online (6060.HK): The Insurtech Everyone Gave Up On

ZhongAn Online trades at 0.57 times book after five profitable underwriting years, with a 95.8% combined ratio and ZA Bank’s first…

ZZHGF $2.1B

Substack von Philipp Aug 15

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.8B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

Cellebrite (CLBT) Q2'26 - Execution wobble, Forecast question mark

Cellebrite cut 2026 ARR guidance by $15 million, replaced its CEO and saw shares fall 30% as elongated sales cycles raise execution…

CLBT $2.9B

Sleep Well Investments Aug 14

Research & Analysis: Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT)

Riot Platforms has 241MW of contracted data center capacity, including a 191MW, 20-year $9.8 billion frontier AI lab deal, as it shifts…

RIOT $6.8B

Monte Independent Investment Research Aug 13 1 click

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $6BKSS $2.2B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 10 clicks

WillScot Q2'26: The Streak Is Over

WillScot Mobile Mini returned to revenue growth in Q2 2026, raised full-year targets and invested $114 million in fleet capacity for data…

WSC $3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Aug 13

Quick Value #326 - Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

Shift4 Payments trades at 6.9x EBITDA after a 50% five-year share decline, while leverage from acquisitions and slowing EPS growth weigh on…

FOUR $3.1B

Value Don't Lie Aug 11

Emergency Press Conference: FRMI & GRPN

Groupon reported accelerating organic revenue and record July traffic, while Fermi signed a $6.5 billion, 222 MW TensorWave data-center…

FRMI $2.7B

Mispriced Assets Aug 11

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2.2B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

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