Monday, October 5, 2026

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

@MattJMcClintock you don't need to squint to see the underperformance of $RH vs the rest of sector over the past month or ytd 😉 https://t.co/lyt7NOg23h

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

Reminder: when going public in 2021, Lucid said to expect 251,000 deliveries in 2026. Just a tad short... $LCID https://t.co/bvhUrgyZbk https://t.co/AxJPehHeeH

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

$FIRY raises $55m by selling noncore asset. I'm long. https://t.co/GiavAqfObB

Geely: Strategic NIO Battery Deal Is A Win

Geely’s ZEEKR nearly doubled first-half 2026 deliveries to 178,000, while Geely bought 30% of NIO’s battery-swapping unit to reduce…

NIO $8.6B

The Asian Investor Oct 4 5 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

Howard Hughes: Still Attractive Despite Risks Of Rapid Transition

Howard Hughes plans to raise nearly $4 billion by selling real estate assets and condos, accelerating Vantage’s insurance expansion while…

HHH $4.3B

Gary Gambino Oct 3 3 clicks

EVI Industries. Margin inflection or fake out?

EVI Industries says its ERP and service-platform build is largely complete, testing whether 10.8% revenue growth can finally outpace…

EVI $248M

Kairos Research Oct 2 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

MRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #16: Huckleberry.AI (HUCK)

Huckleberry.AI trades near $3.30 against $221 million of cash and $900 million-plus of NOLs after selling its operating business, creating…

HUCK $145M

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Oct 2 5 clicks

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

IRDM $5B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

Research & Analysis | AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): MRO Holdings Reshapes the Margin Profile

AAR’s $1.8 billion acquisition of a 65% stake in MRO Holdings adds widebody aircraft maintenance and targets a 19% to 20% EBITDA margin by…

AIR $4B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

The Trade Desk's Q2 revenue grew 3% to $715 million as Q3 guidance called for a year-over-year decline; TTD has fallen over 90% from its…

TTD $5.8B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2 1 click

Belden Inc.: The Ruckus Debt Looks Scarier Than The Math

Belden targets net leverage of 2.9x by 2027 from 3.9x, using RUCKUS's 65%+ gross margins and free cash flow to reduce debt.

BDC $4.3B

Lee Bailey Oct 2

SEER · long

Seer INC

SEER Inc became a founder-offer special situation just before publication.

SEER $124M

Value Investors Club Jul 2

Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.

Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale…

CROX $5.5B

Cannibal Stocks Sep 19 4 clicks

QNT: The 100× Question

Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and…

QNT $1.6B

Mispriced Assets Sep 18 3 clicks

DeFi Development: The Clarity Act Failure Tests The Solana Treasury Thesis

DeFi Development’s Solana treasury strategy faces dilution, preferred dividends and tight liquidity after a 50% rally, with $4.3 million of…

DFDV $154M

Dorine Cherop Sep 18

Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)

Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…

UCTT $3.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 18 1 click

Anterix: The Spectrum Case Is Real, But The Chart And The Insiders Say Wait

Anterix’s 900 MHz spectrum could be worth $2.5–$7 billion, versus a $1.41 billion enterprise value, but insider selling and lumpy…

ATEX $1.5B

The Market Auditor Sep 18 2 clicks

Evolus: Aesthetic Spending Bounceback (Ticker: EOLS)

Evolus posted 21% quarterly revenue growth as U.S. facial-injectable spending bottoms, while making progress toward GAAP profitability.

EOLS $515M

Emerging Moats Research Sep 18

This Week in Special Situations: Cooper Companies, Sturm Ruger, Grab Holdings, Boston Omaha

Special-situations survey flags Cooper’s $3 billion buyback, Grab’s $900 million repurchase, and Beretta’s $44.80 partial tender for Sturm…

RGR $699M

Latticework by MOI Global Sep 18 1 click

House of Weichai

Weichai Power built a global engine group through Baudouin and a 46% stake in PSIX, positioning both for large-bore generator demand from…

PSIX $1.1B

Maius Partners Sep 17 2 clicks

Pioneer Bancorp Has One Too Many Red Flags

Pioneer Bancorp’s acquisitions lifted loans 13.6% and Q2 net interest margin to 4.30%, but expenses, weaker profitability ratios and a…

PBFS $437M

Crimson And Gold Research Sep 17 4 clicks

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