How Ethos Sold Wall Street on AI While Powering an Analog Boiler Room
Ethos Technologies ($LIFE) sells AI-driven life insurance while relying heavily on multilevel marketing agencies using aggressive cold calls and commission-only recruits.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
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From X
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
Idea Brunch on X
Idea Brunch with @Derek_K_Brown of Dardanelles Capital Tickers mentioned include $FLUT and $ELF https://t.co/RqbtxVhwEo
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
catechwilliams on X
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
catechwilliams on X
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
Investor Letters
All letters- Quercus Fund 2026 (Jan-Aug) FCODF $4.8B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.5B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 KXS $3.4BMDA $4.8B
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 ALM $3.9BJXN $9.2B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2BCMCX $2.5B
- Lindsell Train Limited July 2026 RMVEY $3.2B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.1B
- Smead Capital Management 2Q26 SCR $5.9BTVE $4.4B
Group 1's CEO Said "Competitive Advantages and Opportunities." A Car Dealer? I Went Looking.
Group 1’s 19% ownership cap, tied to automaker franchise agreements, frames Conifer’s 1.9 million-share stake and potential buyback-driven…
Research Roundup Vol. LIV
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Dark arts or infinite reload? $TTD’s CEO options and the repricing proxy
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Beam Therapeutics: Ignore The Anthropic Noise And Focus On Clinical Progress
Beam Therapeutics’ BEAM-302 AATD gene-editing program anchors its 2028–2029 upside, while a 2–3 year cash runway leaves dilution likely…
Robert J. Lake 
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) vs Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources director Ken Courtis bought $10.5 million above $190 after a blackout lifted, while Conifer’s 12.7% Group 1…
Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXX
Monte Investments upgrades Karman Holdings to Buy with a $133 target after a 65% drawdown, citing 28.83x EV/aEBITDA and governance changes.
Applied Optoelectronics: The Biggest Growth Phase Starts Now
Applied Optoelectronics targets $1.1 billion in 2026 revenue as 800G and 1.6T data-center demand drives capacity expansion, despite…
Infinity Curve 2 clicks
Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)
Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…
An open letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren
NAIC oversight missed Delaware Life’s $13.34 billion affiliated-bond exposure and permits capital treatment that props up Brighthouse’s…
Sezzle: The Market Is Underestimating This High-Growth Fintech
Sezzle’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 51.7% and adjusted net income 58.4%, while revenue per GMV reached 11.7% as Premium subscriptions lifted…
Blake Winiecki 1 click
SFM · long Sprouts Farmers Market
Sprouts Farmers Market benefits from GLP-1 adoption, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and dietary restrictions driving demand for natural…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)
TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…
Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage
Ouster began coverage at Accumulate as lidar revenue rose 56% in Q2, while annual cash burn near $80 million has driven an 86% share-count…
Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)
AAON's BASX data-center cooling business targets $1 million to $1.5 million per megawatt, with new capacity and backlog conversion expected…
Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is On
Vista Energy's Q2 2026 production rose 32% and revenue 89% as Vaca Muerta acquisitions expand its Argentine export platform and cash…
Alan Galecki 5 clicks
Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update
Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…
Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation
Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…
Roman Vitasek 4 clicks
A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t
ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…
Research Roundup Vol. LIII
Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Strategic Crossroads - Acquisition Or Dividend Bonanza Ahead
ZIM faces Israeli review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-per-share bid, with $2.46 billion cash and elevated transpacific rates supporting potential…
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