Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout and Bitdeer's shift from bitcoin mining to AI…

AAON $6.8BKNF $2.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 30

Sep 29 TTD $5.8B

Dark arts or infinite reload? $TTD’s CEO options and the repricing proxy

Yet Another Value Blog 5 clicks

Sep 29 GPI $2.9B

Group 1 Automotive (GPI) vs Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)

Cannibal Stocks 3 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Sep 10

Deep Sail Capital on X

What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.

@DeepSailCapital Sep 10

Deep Sail Capital on X

The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.

@DeepSailCapital Sep 10

Deep Sail Capital on X

Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.

@valuedontlie Sep 10

Colin King on X

August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point https://t.co/RcptMg3HfE

@BlueDuckCap Sep 10

BDC on X

$BKD - accelerating occupancy on operational improvements. Red-hot August making up for a softer than expected June. New chief sales officer seems to be doing a solid job. Renovations also helping. Like this management team. It might be an obvious play on Boomers aging but just because its obvious doesn't mean it won't work. The supply/demand mismatch is just econ 101. Lots of room to go if they keep up this solid execution under new management. Higher rates for longer keeps deters new supply too.

@irbezek Sep 10

Ian Bezek on X

@dede_eyesan @shortbus_ace @QuietProsperity $ASR has lower cost of capital than Motiva, and Motiva had too many capital commitments to its CAPEX on other things like the toll roads. Logical transaction for both parties as Motiva didn't have the balance sheet for it, $ASR can pay off the high-interest debt quickly.

@irbezek Sep 10

Ian Bezek on X

Colombia is likely to be extended, especially with Abelardo admin as counterparty. $ASR already in talks to fund Medellin expansion which would lead to new contract. What's wrong with Motiva acquisition? Balance sheet should be levered more, especially when buying at such low multiple. I don't think Cancun has "peaked" quite yet, but it will come at some point probably within 5-10 years. Cabos/PV are decent competition.

@ACapitalLP Sep 10

A Capital on X

@matthew_sigel $CIFR https://t.co/YFrXSMIK8i

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXX

Monte Investments upgrades Karman Holdings to Buy with a $133 target after a 65% drawdown, citing 28.83x EV/aEBITDA and governance changes.

KRMN $4.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 29 1 click

Applied Optoelectronics: The Biggest Growth Phase Starts Now

Applied Optoelectronics targets $1.1 billion in 2026 revenue as 800G and 1.6T data-center demand drives capacity expansion, despite…

AAOI $9.1B

Infinity Curve Sep 29 2 clicks

Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.9B

Value Don't Lie Sep 28 3 clicks

QuantumScape: Sell The Stock That Has No Revenue And No Factory Until 2029

QuantumScape faces a 2029 PowerCo plant delay, reduced partner commitments and no revenue, with a scenario-weighted $2.12 per-share…

QS $2.8B

Bears of Wall Street Sep 28

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $9.8B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 28 4 clicks

Shake Shack: The Perfect Storm For A 2027 Breakout

Shake Shack combines 23% restaurant-level margins, 703 locations and positive free cash flow; the bullish thesis targets $4 billion…

SHAK $2.4B

Security Analysis Sep 28 1 click

An open letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren

NAIC oversight missed Delaware Life’s $13.34 billion affiliated-bond exposure and permits capital treatment that props up Brighthouse’s…

BHF $2.9B

Mispriced Assets Sep 27 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

PTON $2.2B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 25 5 clicks

Ouster (NASDAQ: OUST) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Ouster began coverage at Accumulate as lidar revenue rose 56% in Q2, while annual cash burn near $80 million has driven an 86% share-count…

OUST $2.9B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 25 7 clicks

Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)

AAON's BASX data-center cooling business targets $1 million to $1.5 million per megawatt, with new capacity and backlog conversion expected…

AAON $6.8B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 25 8 clicks

SFM · long

Sprouts Farmers Market

Sprouts Farmers Market benefits from GLP-1 adoption, scrutiny of ultra-processed foods and dietary restrictions driving demand for natural…

SFM $6B

Value Investors Club Jun 30 1 click

Sezzle: The Market Is Underestimating This High-Growth Fintech

Sezzle’s Q2 2026 revenue rose 51.7% and adjusted net income 58.4%, while revenue per GMV reached 11.7% as Premium subscriptions lifted…

SEZL $3.6B

Blake Winiecki Sep 27 1 click

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…

FLY $3.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 24 16 clicks

Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation

Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…

BIRK $5.3B

Roman Vitasek Sep 24 4 clicks

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…

ZIM $3.5B

Calvin Blissett Sep 23 15 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

ONDS $4.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 23 4 clicks

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: Strategic Crossroads - Acquisition Or Dividend Bonanza Ahead

ZIM faces Israeli review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-per-share bid, with $2.46 billion cash and elevated transpacific rates supporting potential…

ZIM $3.5B

Melissa Tucker Sep 23

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant…

FOUR $2.9B

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 22 21 clicks

Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH

Texas Instruments, ON Semiconductor and Vishay are rated Accumulate on rising robotics demand for analog, power and discrete chips after a…

VSH $5.8B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 22 6 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII

Firefly Aerospace grew backlog to $1.5 billion, won two 2028 lunar missions and acquired Space-ng for autonomous navigation across its Blue…

FLY $3.9B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 22 9 clicks

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Deep Sail Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

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