Updates
FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.
FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo. https://t.co/sy97F9J9YU
August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point https://t.co/RcptMg3HfE
Owning $PLBY for the lingerie business is like reading playboy for the articles. https://t.co/zzHcF1nVza
Bumble trades at roughly 2x owner’s earnings and 4.76x enterprise value, with Whitney Wolfe Herd’s return central to a rerating case.
DeFi Development’s Solana treasury strategy faces dilution, preferred dividends and tight liquidity after a 50% rally, with $4.3 million of…
Special-situations survey flags Cooper’s $3 billion buyback, Grab’s $900 million repurchase, and Beretta’s $44.80 partial tender for Sturm…
Zentek initiation report.
Groupon CEO Dušan Šenkypl and CFO Rana Kashyap discuss rebuilding the local-experiences marketplace with AI infrastructure, better…
Independence Realty Trust is buying Centerspace in stock to create an $8.1 billion apartment REIT, targeting 5% 2027 Core FFO per-share…
NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…
Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.
Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…
Imperial Petroleum's record Q2 cash generation, major share repurchases and a $32 million Suezmax sale gain set up another record quarter.
GLIBA · long Liberty Capital Corp, GLIBA, is pitched long following its July 2025 spinoff from Liberty Broadband.
Kronos Worldwide’s 27% inventory reduction added $120 million in cash inflows as chloride-based TiO₂ demand rises amid a sulfur shortage.
GeoPark’s Bare Block acquisition targets $1.2 billion of 2030 EBITDA, but 42.1 million to 47.6 million new shares and Gilinski control…
Signet, Medipal and First REIT headline 27 situations spanning buybacks, activism, M&A and liquidation catalysts.
Farmland Partners trades at 70% of NAV, with farmland appreciation, commodity prices and crop insurance supporting earnings beyond AFFO.
ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…
Titan Mining reported Q2 revenue of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.6 million as zinc output rose, while advancing its Kilbourne…
Limbach Holdings, down 63% since June 2025, upgraded on bargain valuation and growth prospects following its acquisition of 1901 Inc.
Build-A-Bear Workshop, the toy retailer.
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
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