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Thursday, September 24, 2026

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Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for Blue Ghost, Elytra and Eclipse.

FLY $3.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research 16 clicks

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Why we exited $CRSP and kept $TEM AlphaFold solved the backend of the problem — predicting a protein’s 3D structure from its sequence. The harder frontend problem remains: knowing which protein or pathway is actually worth targeting. Most complex diseases are still poorly understood at the causal level. That distinction matters. The next real breakthroughs look more likely to come from AI-native groups that treat large-scale compute as the primary engine, in the same way OpenAI and Anthropic approached language before the ChatGPT moment. Public investors may only get clean access later via secondaries or IPOs. CRISPR sits on the earlier-generation side of that divide. Tempus is closer to the compute-and-data native side — building models while assembling a genuine clinical data moat. That is why one was exited and the other retained.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Himax and the parallel optical bet $HIMX sits in two places in the optical stack: micro-lens arrays that route light into fiber, and a more speculative but potentially transformative position in microLED-based CPO. The microLED idea inverts the industry’s core assumption. Instead of fewer, ever-faster InP laser channels, it uses hundreds or thousands of simple low-speed lanes (4–10G each). High-speed SerDes and DSP largely disappear, energy drops below 1 pJ/bit, and the continuous-wave InP laser is eliminated entirely — replaced by GaN microLEDs from the display supply chain. Reliability improves and failures become graceful rather than catastrophic. Reach is limited to a few meters and the fiber-bundle ecosystem is still immature, so the technology is confined to short-reach scale-up. It remains pre-revenue and more debated than it was a few months ago. Yet the process know-how from Himax’s high-density display drivers maps unusually well onto this architecture. The stock is up ~55% YTD but down ~18% QTD, and currently trades around 31x EV/FCF and 10x EV/GP. For anyone who still sees a meaningful path for CPO — and views the microLED route as high-upside optionality rather than pure speculation — the current levels look like a reasonable place to build or add. We go deeper on the microLED architecture and its place in the broader optical stack in Part 4 of our Photonics series at Convequity.

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[CoStar] Homes are different

CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…

ZG $6.2B
scuttleblurb 4 clicks
MBGL · long

Mobility Global INC -spn

Mobility Global Inc. will become a standalone public company through S&P Global’s spin-off of its Mobility division.

MBGL $5.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up

STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture,…

NVTS $3.1B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks

The Offshore Message From Oslo

Offshore drillers have secured 105 rig-years by September, 42% above all of 2025, as national oil companies lock up long-term capacity.

RIG $5.8B
Cannibal Stocks 1 click

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