Tuesday, September 22, 2026

$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital

Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.

FOUR $3B

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 22 22 clicks

Sep 22 VSH $5.6B

Analog Semiconductor Smorgasbord, Feat. TXN, ON, VSH

Cestrian Capital Research 7 clicks

Sep 22 FLY $3.8B

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXVIII

Monte Independent Investment Research 10 clicks

From X

@catechwilliams Apr 9 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.

@catechwilliams Mar 11 3 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.

@catechwilliams Mar 6 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.

@catechwilliams Feb 28 5 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.

@catechwilliams Feb 12 2 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses

@catechwilliams Feb 11 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.

@catechwilliams Feb 5 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.

@CapitalVoss Jan 29 2 clicks

Voss Capital on X

The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s

Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead

Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…

CLBT $2.9B

Aurelion Research Sep 22 10 clicks

Meta's Muse Could be Big Win for Innodata

Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale…

INOD $2.2B

Hunterbrook Sep 22 13 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure, Corning And More

Undercovered Dozen spotlights 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Rithm Capital, Sterling Infrastructure and Corning.

RITM $4.9B

The Undercovered Dozen Sep 22 1 click

Emeth Value Capital’s Andrew Carreon on Shift4 ($FOUR)

Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…

FOUR $3B

Yet Another Value Blog Sep 22 5 clicks

Copart's Return To Growth Starts Now: Adair's $1.9B Bet On ACV Auctions

Copart’s $1.9 billion ACV Auctions acquisition targets renewed growth, with EPS accretion expected by fiscal 2028 as insurance…

ACVA $1.8B

Robert J. Lake Sep 22 3 clicks

Quick Value #331 - Corteva / Vylor Spin-Off

Corteva will spin off its Pioneer seed business, Vylor, on October 1, leaving crop protection RemainCo that could trade at 6.5-8.5x 2026…

CTVA $9.5B

Value Don't Lie Sep 21 6 clicks

[CoStar] Homes are different

CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…

ZG $6.3B

scuttleblurb Sep 21 5 clicks

ARKO. 3x Owner’s Earnings multiple, 21% ROCE, Founders involved and large shareholders, Stake in a public company>market cap. Superb Capital Allocators

ARKO trades at 3 times estimated 2025 owner’s earnings, while its 73.6% APC stake exceeds its $473 million market cap.

ARKO $476M

Calvin Blissett Sep 21 5 clicks

Bioventus: Cash Flow Anchors The Bull Case Beyond A Potential Sale

Bioventus uses established-product cash flow to cut debt and fund launches, while its 2030 term loan extension and lower margin support its…

BVS $1.1B

Equity Eagle Sep 21 1 click

I Tested Three Cannibals Against Dillard’s. I Bought Two. (CROX, CNX, GPI)

Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes…

CROX $5.5BCNX $5B

Cannibal Stocks Sep 20 3 clicks

TRIP · long

Tripadvisor INC

Tripadvisor (TRIP) is presented as a long idea.

TRIP $1B

Value Investors Club Jun 24 6 clicks

Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO

Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.

MTN $5.2BGEO $4.3B

Ian’s Insider Corner Sep 20 10 clicks

🍔New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - Meritage Hospitality Group Inc.🍔

Meritage Hospitality, a 320-unit Wendy’s franchisee, filed Chapter 11 amid $137 million of bank debt, $391 million of leases and a…

WEN $1.2B

PETITION Sep 20 4 clicks

Bumble, 2x Owner’s Earnings. Sentiment is abysmal, the founder is back. The stock could easily be a multibagger.

Bumble trades at roughly 2x owner’s earnings and 4.76x enterprise value, with Whitney Wolfe Herd’s return central to a rerating case.

BMBL $329M

Calvin Blissett Sep 20 5 clicks

Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.

Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale…

CROX $5.5B

Cannibal Stocks Sep 19 6 clicks

Karman: Why I'm Upgrading To Buy After A 68% Drop

Karman Holdings (KRMN) is upgraded after a 68% drop, with 24% organic growth, a $1.3 billion backlog and higher 2026 guidance offset by…

KRMN $4.4B

Dhierin Bechai Sep 19 1 click

QNT: The 100× Question

Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and…

QNT $1.8B

Mispriced Assets Sep 18 5 clicks

Quantum Computing: Continuing To Evolve And Transition From The Lab To Commerce

Quantum Computing, QUBT, sold its first Dirac-3 system, added a second fab through acquisition and is building photonics capabilities…

QUBT $1.8B

Marc Gerstein Sep 18

Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)

Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…

UCTT $3.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 18 3 clicks

Anterix: The Spectrum Case Is Real, But The Chart And The Insiders Say Wait

Anterix’s 900 MHz spectrum could be worth $2.5–$7 billion, versus a $1.41 billion enterprise value, but insider selling and lumpy…

ATEX $1.7B

The Market Auditor Sep 18 2 clicks

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

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