$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Back to today 
From X
mavix on X
I just published the Earnings Update about the Shelly Group $SLYG H1 2026 results. You can find it in the Portfolio section of the blog :) https://t.co/8oHEkLEiea
PAA Research on X
It’s the same picture: time to get SHORT $CASY and $MUSA https://t.co/EFTszhSvv9
Ian Bezek on X
Corporacion America Airports $CAAP announces a 91 cent dividend, nearly a 4% yield on today's stock price, and 40% yield-on-cost for people that bought in 2020. The top complaint about CAAP had been it didn't pay a dividend, so that it is now resolved. ✈️
SG on X
Elroy Air makes big inroads in military eVTOL, here autonomous cargo drones. $KTOS to manufacture. Going public soon via merger with $CMII / $IPXG SPAC. https://t.co/GgJ06SqbKI
JabroniCoin.USD on X
$ACMR evolving its institutional shareholder base as its earnings power & liquidity increase: US-listed bet on China Semicap. Capital Group now top 4. Ward Ferry, 12 West, Citadel… https://t.co/7mMHvefEYe https://t.co/cY0fynu04r
Lee Roach on X
Anyone follow $LFTO closely? What price does this get interesting? https://t.co/wBRnTTafXG
Deep Sail Capital on X
$OUST $LUNR - depending on pace of lunar expansion $CLPT $NURS.v
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.5B
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. July 2026 ALM $3.8BJXN $8.8B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 AUTO $4.6BKXS $3.4B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.5B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.3B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.2B
- Artisan Partners Q2 2026 CIGI $4.7BCLBT $2.8B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 MMS $2.8B
Cellebrite (CLBT) Management Meeting: The Road Ahead
Cellebrite converts more than 110% of EBITDA into free cash flow and trades at 12.5 times free cash flow, with management targeting 15% or…
Meta's Muse Could be Big Win for Innodata
Innodata's new Meta contract for long-horizon agent personalization ties the data company to Meta's Muse AI assistant, despite Meta's Scale…
Emeth Value Capital’s Andrew Carreon on Shift4 ($FOUR)
Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…
Quick Value #331 - Corteva / Vylor Spin-Off
Corteva will spin off its Pioneer seed business, Vylor, on October 1, leaving crop protection RemainCo that could trade at 6.5-8.5x 2026…
[CoStar] Homes are different
CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…
I Tested Three Cannibals Against Dillard’s. I Bought Two. (CROX, CNX, GPI)
Crocs, CNX and Group 1 are tested against Dillard’s buyback-driven share-count reduction, with Group 1 leading and CNX’s convertible notes…
Aggressive Portfolio Trades: Buy Vail Resorts, Buy ORR, Short GEO
Vail Resorts, down 60% since 2022, is pitched for an El Niño-driven ski-season rebound; the portfolio also buys ORR and shorts GEO.
Who Really Runs Crocs? The Autopsy.
Crocs CEO Andrew Rees turned around the core brand, then borrowed $2 billion for HEYDUDE, whose $737 million write-down followed wholesale…
Karman: Why I'm Upgrading To Buy After A 68% Drop
Karman Holdings (KRMN) is upgraded after a 68% drop, with 24% organic growth, a $1.3 billion backlog and higher 2026 guidance offset by…
Dhierin Bechai 1 click
Research & Analysis: Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ: UCTT)
Ultra Clean Holdings targets a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate by H2 2027 through manufacturing expansion and a broader…
MOH · long Molina Healthcare INC
Molina Healthcare is presented as a long investment in the widely disliked U.S. health-insurance industry.
Planet's Next Constellation Is Bigger Than Just An Upgrade
Planet Labs’ $116.1 million second-quarter revenue, 70% defense mix and planned Owl constellation position satellite imagery and AI data as…
Petri Dish Reports 2 clicks
Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up
STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture,…
The Offshore Message From Oslo
Offshore drillers have secured 105 rig-years by September, 42% above all of 2025, as national oil companies lock up long-term capacity.
Problems at Jackson Financial ($JXN)
Jackson Financial administers $287 billion in retirement accounts while a report says its captive, hedge-loss installment plan and…
Figure Technology (FIGR): The "Hypoport of America" Growing 100% With 55% EBITDA Margins – and Priced Like the Story Is Broken
Figure Technology's HELOC platform grew Q2 2026 revenue 113% with a 54.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, while shares trade 57% below January's…
Kodiak Sciences: Daybreak Needs To Deliver More Than A Passing Grade
Kodiak Sciences expects Phase 3 DAYBREAK results for Zenkuda and KSI-501 in wet AMD, with durability and vision outcomes key beyond…
Sam Mancini 
Research Roundup Vol. LII
Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…
Forget Drones: Ondas Is Building An Autonomous Warfare Ecosystem
Ondas Holdings, ONDS, grew Q2 2026 revenue 1,235% to $83.7 million after acquisitions and is integrating drone and autonomous warfare…
Analysis Fundamental 1 click
Ethos' Biggest Distributor by Head Count Ranked It Last on Stage
Ethos relies on three carriers for 88% of revenue as TruStage payment failures triggered policy lapses and Family First Life publicly…
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