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Sunday, September 20, 2026

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@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CLBT - You can make a pretty compelling case that the guidance cut was to kitchen sink the expectations for the new CEO so he has a bottom base to build off of. From the call 4-5 major deals slipped out a quarter, and Genesis isn't ramping as fast as originally thought, but new products are growing +25% & they have tailwinds in terms of FedRamp & YoY US federal basically didn't grow last year. Next quarter they beat, and re-raise guidance and stock is back to $16. 50% return from here in a quarter. Clearly if they can't close deals in Q3 at a faster pace then the recovery takes longer, but seems like good risk-reward here. Full disclosure: I added some at $10.5
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I posted this mental model of $EVC in May when the stock was in high $7s. My price target for the company is $10 billion equity value or around $100 per share. Apparently some funds bought into Entravision based on this and didn’t do much of their own homework. I didn’t think I needed to say this but do your own homework if you buy a stock. I’m just some dude in rural America. I never went to college. Worked third shift in a factory all my adult life. Now I talk about stocks I like, invest my money and tweet jokes. That being said, nothing has changed with my thesis on Entravision being a potential multi-bagger. Q2 was an amazing quarter. Q3 will be an amazing quarter. You don’t measure a businesses success over a quarter, which it seems like many are doing. The best investing is done over long periods of time. Patience is the best tool for the best success. Tell me, has anything changed with the thesis? The industry is growing at a 30-50% annual rate. As long as Entravision can keep improving their models they will likely continue to grow at the industry rate. And over the past few years they have smoked the industry. One quarter of deceleration? Who cares. They probably had a model breakthrough in Q2 that accelerated revenues and I’m sure the World Cup also helped their CTV business. And to be frank, this management team is one of the most conservative teams I know. They literally start every call talking about the dying media business. Do the math on what Q4 implies if you think it’s over. Just do it. The DSP business model is one of the best I’ve ever seen. Low capital costs. Extremely high incremental margins. Scalable. Negative working capital. Back out of the media business and the spectrum assets - which are looking like they could get bid over near-term (near term is way different for me than Wall Street’s two second of pleasure btw) and you are buying Ad-Tech for an extremely low multiple, or close to nothing. I could be wrong. I don’t think there’s crazy downside here. But just remember, I’m not from the industry. I made bathtubs for a living until I started blogging. So definitely do you own research before buying blindly based on my thoughts. It is hilarious though that hedge funds were buying because of my research. Can’t wait to tell some of the guys at the shop I worked at about that. Over some Steel Reserve and Lucky Strike smokes, of course.

Investor Letters

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House of Weichai

Weichai Power built a global engine group through Baudouin and a 46% stake in PSIX, positioning both for large-bore generator demand from…

PSIX $1.1B
Maius Partners 2 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits plans to expand grocery and export sales, invest in six brands, and improve winery operations through FY29.

LSDAF $1.1B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

VZLA $2B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 1 click
TPLKF · long

PVA Tepla

PVA TePla (XTRA:TPE) is presented as a long position.

TPLKF $725M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

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