Copart 4Q26 Business Update: Thesis Shift?
Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite international growth.
Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite international growth.
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
1/ So first things first, $HHH missed on top and bottom line. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. Value was created for shareholders and I'll briefly explain why...
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
$LYTS Very attractive acq of EMI following successful prior M&A blueprint--significant cross-selling op, cost reduction, expands product set which further solidifies dominant national position. Seeing +50% upside to shares from here.
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