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Monday, September 14, 2026

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Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether ALRM’s decline is a false alarm.

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@majgeoinvesting 1 click

Maj Soueidan on X

With OCC, using historical backlog, conversion multiples, the backlog implies that they can report $.25 EPS. The wildcard here is two things. 1. Have operating expenses stabilized? 2. Will backlog remain strong so that the company can at least hold that new level of EPS if they achieve it? To be clear, a bullish EPS outlier scenario could occur because I used the historical low-end backlog to revenue multiplier. I haven’t modeled $RFIL. I’m just using their shareholder letter as a barometer, where they talk about stronger markets and more visibility. It’s worth noting that both companies are moving into their seasonally stronger quarters. They’re also both benefiting from a recovery in their legacy telecom markets. Furthermore, I don’t think either of them have seen much contribution from their data center business. So, hopefully, you have this perfect storm situation where their legacy markets, along with new markets are hitting it in stride at the same time Personally, I think RFIL is the better company, long-term, but that OCC can have the biggest wow factor for the quarter. RFIL has done a better job at addressing its entire business plan to reduce cyclicality, even within its legacy markets. I’m not convinced OCC has done that.
@ActAccordingly 3 clicks

PAA Research on X

Man in just 48 hours we went from the $DRAM bulls tap-dancing and high fiving on the "incredible" $160B Q/Q (it is crazy) increase in supply and purchase agreements from $NVDA to: "The memory names have held up well on a relative basis the past two days".... Two golden rules apply here: 1) The market will pick the path of the most pain 2) Karma has everyone's address so please stop with your victory laps, lectures, and bear trouncing. This game is hard and unforgiving.

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Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

PTON $2.1B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $161M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $479M
Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks
SLVM · long

Sylvamo CORP

Sylvamo, a $1.6 billion uncoated freesheet paper producer, has fallen about 60% from its November 2024 high above $95 to roughly $40.

SLVM $1.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Titan Mining Q2 Update

Titan Mining reported Q2 revenue of $25.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $9.6 million as zinc output rose, while advancing its Kilbourne…

TII $309M
Sylence Capital 4 clicks

Sangamo Bankruptcy (SGMOQ)

Sangamo Therapeutics’ Chapter 11 asset sales leave common equity tied to $100 million in PTC Fabry therapy approval milestones and a…

SGMO $58M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 6 clicks

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